The era of cheap manufacturing is coming to an end, and the advantages of scale are still unsustainable. Many local champions have turned their bets on top of the brand premium, but they are waiting for a solid ceiling. Where is the way out?
Do the epic Chinese economy's rapid growth progress slow?
Bad news is enough. The cost of raw materials, labor, and land has continued to rise, squeezing profits from many manufacturing and retail companies, and transferring them to consumers is not easy. Li & Fung, Hong Kong-based consumer goods sourcing and logistics company, a major supplier of major retail companies such as Wal-Mart, warned that “a new era of price increases for purchases†has arrived. For the world economy, this Predicts the end of deflation led by China.
This unusual situation indicates that the era of cheap manufacturing in China is rudely ending. In the past 20 years, Chinese entrepreneurs have only two words in the dictionary: scale. China has courageously invested a large amount of funds in infrastructure such as transportation, eventually helping many small businesses originating in the local market to go to the country. The traditional marginal cost theory plays a role: Only a crazy commodity is needed to quickly send a company into the cloud.
Today, such miracles are not surprising. As a result, when the domestic champions of some industries began to experience contagious slowdowns and setbacks, one can't help wondering how these embarrassing phenomena occur.
The most representative is Li Ning Co., Ltd. in the sporting goods industry. Since its founder of the same name, Li Ning, a former Chinese gymnast, flared into the torch without fear of gravity at the opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 20-year-old company has now fallen heavily on Earth. . In December of last year, the number of orders for Li Ning’s second-quarter (Q2) ordering meeting fell astonishingly: the increase was zero, causing investors to dump their shares in large quantities. Although Li Ning was the largest sporting goods manufacturer in China for a long time in the past, and surpassed Adidas in 2009 to become the second runner-up in the Chinese market, many investors and observers believed that Li Ning really met this time. To the trouble.
Li Ning’s 2010 annual report, which is not too bright, is also expected: The annual revenue is 9.479 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0% year-on-year, which is lower than the compound annual growth rate of over 30% in the past 10 years. Although the market is still digesting the bad news of the decline in Q2 orders in 2011, Li Ning CEO Zhang Zhiyong further reminded at the launch of the annual report that Q3 is expected to be the lowest point of the year. If there is no immediate rescue pill pill, the growth rate of Li Ning will still be at a relatively low level this year. Li Ning, accustomed to long-term advancement, seems to need to try hard.
This terrible collapse also appears in the automotive industry. On August 3 last year, BYD Auto (01211.HK) announced that it will reduce its sales target from the previous 800,000 to 600,000. In spite of this, the automaker, which was strongly driven by stockholder Warren Buffett's stock, has not yet completed its mission. It sold only 519,800 vehicles in the year, and its net profit fell 33.5% year-on-year.
The situation of Chery, which is the No. 1 auto brand, is similar: the original target for the entire year was 700,000 vehicles, but only 662,000 vehicles were actually sold. Chery’s efforts to enter the high-end market are also frustrating. In 2009, Chery launched two brands, "Resort" and "Wei Lin," which were positioned in the mid-to-high end, but sales were poor. Recently, it has announced the cancellation of the establishment of Wei Lin Business Division for half a year. The brand has returned to Chery's sales company.
It's not easy to figure out what's going on. Simply put, the rapid growth achieved by relying on low-cost manufacturing's comparative advantage and control over the retail scale has been difficult to sustain. If we want to write memoirs, we can begin now. Chinese companies in the local championship have touched the ceiling of brand upgrades earlier than their peers. Consumers continue to look for more cost-effective products, but I am sorry that they have turned to multinational companies’ brands as their purchasing power increases. embrace. A research report by Credit Suisse demonstrated the difficulty of Li Ning challenging Nike: When the family’s monthly income exceeds RMB 7,000, Chinese consumers’ preference will shift from domestic brands to foreign brands. The Chinese brands that want to become global champions do not seem to have completely conquered the local market, let alone other overseas markets.
We observed similar phenomena in at least four industries. In addition to the sporting goods industry and the automotive industry mentioned above, the white goods industry and the hotel industry have shown similar characteristics. However, the situation is slightly better: Haier, which has been promoted to be the world's largest white-electricity manufacturer, has not experienced a decline in sales and is working hard to build the high-end terminal brand Casa Di to win the favor of high-value consumers; China's largest economy hotel chain home Although the market is far from saturated, it has also launched the Hefei brand to enter the four- and five-star hotel market.
In the end, many Chinese companies seem to have just realized that their past fascination with scale made them miss something more crucial. Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said that BYD should pay more attention to "quality of car sales" instead of "pursuing market share blindly." He also said that we have focused too much on growth in the past few years. This is wrong. Yin Tongyue, chairman and general manager of Chery Automobile, also said at the beginning of this year: “It would rather fall to ten companies and implement a strategic transformation of the company.†In 2011, Chery will shorten the front line, focus on quality improvement, and increase the brand premium, instead of blindly The pursuit of quantity and speed.
Another obvious trend is that the previously clearly defined default market sphere is being broken. The multinational brands that can be called "gold brands" also learn to use China's low-cost manufacturing resources. In the past, they were sticking to the high-end market. Now, they are starting to compete for low-end and middle-end consumers by launching sub-brands or more cost-effective products, and speeding up the extension of retail networks to third and fourth-tier cities. This forces "red brands" - these homegrown champions face two choices: up or down? Is it continuing to retire to the lower end of the market, or is it making a positive battle with high-priced and oversized, first-tier cities and gold brands? Due to their different positions and stages, those “blue brands†have not yet felt the pressure of the red brands. They can still capture the emerging consumers in the low-end market with low prices and channel scale.
Take the sporting goods industry as an example. Liao Tianshu, partner and managing director of Boston Consulting Group, believes that a wave of overall slowdown will develop from first-tier cities to low-tier cities. The bases of Anta may not yet exist in third-tier cities. Feel it. However, “when a wave hits the waves, if Anta stays at a stage where it completely competes with price, it will be very bad.†Liao introduced.
This is indeed a multiple-choice question for the future: Where do these red brands choose to fight? The key to winning is how to take a dominant position in an increasingly large midmarket. As more and more Chinese consumers have stepped into the middle class, the structure of the dumbbell-shaped consumer groups has gradually changed. They are not satisfied with purchasing low-priced products and increasingly prefer to participate in the treasure hunting game in the mid-range market. In a survey of Chinese consumers conducted last year, McKinsey said that from 2008 to 2009, half of China's retail market growth came from consumption upgrades.
The problem is that Li Ning and Chery, who are ambitious and want to increase the gold content of their brands, find that it is not easy to have such a premium capability. The report and analysis of this article will begin with the topic of “How to Lose Scale Advantage†and discuss one by one how the downward penetration of gold brands and the upgrading of consumer spending will lead to a “fatal encounter,†the difficulty and choice of the premium for red brands.†Where is the battle, and how to do it.
How the scale advantage was lost During the industrial period, the “world factory†was located in Lancashire in the northeast of England. By the 1830s, the number of industrial machines owned was once greater than that of the rest of the world. The total number is even more - that is the era of shuttles and steam engines. In China, looking for a portrait that could best represent the ancient agricultural country's transition to industrialization may be the young girls in the Chinese Women Workers written by Pan Yi, a sociological investigator. “This stage of the transition from adolescence to marriage,†Pan wrote, “meshing in with the social time in which China transitioned from a planned economy to a market economy.â€
This is the two sides of the Chinese-style miracle: prosperity and uneasiness behind it. For more than 30 years, China’s low labor cost has provided a “demographic dividend†for the “China model†in the globalization process. However, the reality that China faces is the closure of the demographic dividend window period in less than a decade. With the advent of an aging society, China’s rural surplus labor is far from imagined. China is shifting from a surplus of labor to an era of labor shortage. Due to labor-related tension last year, many large factories in China were suspended. When Foxconn’s Shenzhen factory suffered a series of suicides by workers, public criticism and dissatisfaction reached its peak.
According to Feng Guojing, chairman of Li & Fung Group, the dispute surrounding Foxconn is an epoch-making event. Feng believes that this will not only mark the end of the era of the labor force, such as excrement, but will also trigger reflections on the entire industrial park system on which China's economic growth has been dependent for the past 30 years. "We can now call it the former Foxconn and post-Foxconn times. Foxconn events are indeed so important." He said.
According to Morgan Stanley, over the past 10 years, the real hourly wage increase of Chinese manufacturing has reached 12.7% per year. The United States is down by 0.5% each year. The hourly output of Chinese workers is 21% of the United States, but wages are only 11% of the United States. This gap will begin to shrink. “The increase in labor costs since 2010 has been explosive growth.†Zhang Zhiyong, CEO of Li Ning, told Global Entrepreneurs. Li Ning's average wage per worker for most foundries has reached between 1,800 and 5,000 yuan, and is expected to increase by 10-15% in the future. Inflicted on this, JPMorgan's managing director, China Securities and Commodity Department Li Jing believes that in the sub-sectors such as construction, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, the impact of wage increases will be greatest.
This is not yet. With regard to the cost of raw materials, it is not necessary to list a number of macro figures. All walks of life have experienced a sharp increase in prices, which directly affects the profitability of the manufacturing and retail industries.
The narrowing of the elastic space for large-scale manufacturing has also been the rise of China’s new economic zone. It has made consumers’ shopping preferences increasingly more regionally differentiated, which means that a single product has a very large scale. Manufacturing and sales have been difficult to achieve.
The Chinese market has been connected by a city and a city. According to the ClusterMap method, McKinsey divides Chinese cities into 22 urban agglomerations. Each agglomeration develops around one or two central cities. All satellite cities A central city is no more than 300 kilometers away, and each city group's GDP exceeds 1% of China's total urban GDP. This method of division shows that the purchasing habits of consumers in different cities—even though separated by hundreds of kilometers—have great differences. For example, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have a driving distance of only 3 hours, but they have a population structure, language, and consumer preferences. There is a world of difference. Four-fifths of Shenzhen residents are migrant workers, mostly under the age of 35. They speak Mandarin or their dialect and like bars. The population of Guangzhou is only 1/4, and the population is older. It mainly speaks Cantonese and is used to eating tea in restaurants. The difference between the two is no less than the difference between France and Germany.
Few companies will use the same strategy between the French and German markets, but similar practices are common in China. They focus more on nurturing the largest markets and ignore the differences between the hundreds of cities in China. This is also the reason why Li Ning began to adjust the organizational structure of the sales system in March of last year. The entire Chinese market is divided into three regions: East China, North China, and South China. It is no longer the headquarters of the unified ordering, but the major regions according to the local market. Features to hold an ordering meeting to determine the mix of goods and time to market.
The logic of Zhang Zhiyong is very simple: In the past, the magical power of relying on the number of stores opened to achieve scale growth was lost. Although there are still room to expand retail terminals in third and fourth-tier cities, due to the increase in real estate rentals and labor costs, the profit rate of single stores is declining. Li Ning added 1,004 new stores in 2009, 80% of which were located in second-tier and third-tier cities, but same-store sales increased from 25.8% in 2008 to -2.3%. The shop rental cost has already accounted for 25% to 30% of dealer sales.
This is also the reason why Li Ning began to vigorously integrate dealer networks in the middle of last year. Integrate scattered small retailers with only a single facade into a larger dealer system to further enhance channel efficiency and management. The numbers prove everything: Li Ning had 7,915 stores in 2010 and 7,249 in 2009. It is not true that the so-called "store closures" due to falling orders and failure to rebrand.
In the sporting goods market, the entire consumer demand is divided into three levels: first-tier cities have entered mature markets, second and third-tier markets are transitioning from basic to mass markets, and the four-, five-, and six-tier markets are basically still in a state of consumption entry. . At present, the intensive cultivation of Nike and Adidas has been completed in the front line. The next step is to infiltrate into the second and third lines; while domestic brands such as Li Ning and Anta continue to grow at the scale of opening stores. As the growth rate of the industry is reduced, the cost of materials, labor, and the cost of retail channels increase, the industry power to simply realize the scale of opening a store will be greatly reduced, and shops with a low level of efficiency will not be able to make ends meet. Due to the large differences between different levels of cities, it is difficult to achieve "standard" copy of the format in the low-tier cities and feel the lack of expansion. In first and second-tier cities, stores that have been operating for many years are often difficult to take root in third- and fourth-tier cities. The level of effectiveness is generally only 50-80% of those in first-tier cities. Some of them even after years of adjustment are not profitable.
Sporting goods currently cover the first-tier and second-tier markets, and channel providers are mostly brand-operated sports retailers. Their store locations, retail scale, retail operation capabilities, logistics and information capabilities have been consummated; other low-level markets are mostly single. Brand-based retailers are more sensitive to market fluctuations. "If there is not enough brand premium, subject to factors such as rising rents and slower growth of the industry, these shops in low-level markets will fall into losses," said Zhang.
The precondition for realizing profits is whether it can achieve a high brand premium, which is also the original intention of the reshaping of the Li Ning brand. In order to help the dealers transition, Li Ning lowered the purchase price this year, giving dealers a deduction point of 3% per year, improving the core competitiveness of department stores, retail store operations, information, and logistics.
However, due to the complexity of the domestic market, it is not possible to manage different regional markets with a unified, simple and amplifying system across the country, which has exacerbated the difficulty of market expansion.
The first is the obvious regional differences among consumers. According to McKinsey's survey, of the important factors that govern the differences in consumer behavior, the impact of regional differences exceeds the key factors such as the city hierarchy and income level. The complexity of the Chinese market is equal to the sum of more than a dozen foreign countries. For example, regional differences in the female underwear market are very obvious. Female consumers in metropolitan areas are most concerned about the use of materials, workmanship and fit, while female consumers in smaller cities are more concerned with the appearance of bright colors and lace. Female consumers in the North like to design sexy, bold and printed underwear, while female consumers in the South prefer dark colors.
Followed by scattered suppliers and logistics systems. There are about 21 million retail outlets in China, and the total market share of the top five retailers in the consumer goods market is only one-fifth, even if countries like India, Indonesia, Ukraine, and Russia account for at least It is twice that of China. In addition to individual consumer product categories such as home appliances, the vast majority of China's consumer product market still needs to face an extremely fragmented supplier system. In addition, the lack of efficient information management systems and professionals also restricts the management of the retail industry.
Competition makes brand owners in the frontline and leading second-tier cities need to consider continuously subdividing and improving the existing mature "standard" format, and update the definition of "standard" according to the new needs of consumers. Just like the pursuit of parity, retail terminals can also use “time economy†to divide the shopping time of consumers to create higher unit time sales; use the golden sales period to change the proportion of store displays and high-price products. , to increase sales.
In this respect, Li Ning still has much room for improvement. When Zhang Zhiyong visited the Southern Market in November last year, he discovered that many Li Ning store down apparel had been heavily loaded. In his view, down products are too early to be put on the market. Invalid goods not only have a backlog of normal sales schedules, but also easily cause inventory to dealers. "These retail details are opportunities for efficiency growth." Zhang said. Li Ning previously provided more than 1,000 SKUs per quarter (stock units differentiated by color, style, etc.), but now there are only six or seven hundred SKUs in market segments such as the Eastern, Southern, and Northern Districts, with the rest being the product division. Active filtering. Zhang Zhiyong even stipulated that before the new products are listed on the market, the product department needs to filter the products once again, delineate the products for the specific market's consumer demand, and then communicate with the customer's buyers one by one. In order to speed up the reaction, Li Ning has increased support for back-office logistics. The logistics base in Jingmen will have a radius of 900 kilometers in the future, increasing the delivery speed by 36% to 48%, and covering about 50% of retail stores.
The emergence of numerous new businesses in China's retail market has also exacerbated the difficulty of scale management, such as shopping malls, outlets, and factory stores. An important strategy of Li Ning this year is to expand the number of factory stores. In 2010, the factory stores accounted for 6-8% of Li Ning's total sales, and will increase to 15% in the future. In general, there will be a 1/4 increase in inventory for each retail store opened. These reasonable stocks need to be digested.
The loss of fatal encounters in scale has been depressing enough. If nothing is done, Zhang Zhiyong sees a more terrible future: As multinational companies gradually penetrate downwards, Chinese consumers’ spending power will increase, and the two will meet. It is doomed, but "will be catastrophic for Chinese brands."
Multinational companies are indeed doing this. After being overtaken by Li Ning in the Chinese market in 2009, Adidas announced in November last year that it would open 2,500 new stores in China. The key point is that this more extensive sales network will cover 1,400 Chinese cities, with a shift in focus from near-saturated first-tier cities. Small cities and less wealthy consumers. In cities that will cover more than 500,000 people from the beginning, “we will cover seven-tier cities by 2015.†said Christophe Bezu, managing director of Adidas Greater China, which means that those with a population of only 50,000 or more Adidas will appear in the towns. At the same time, these stores scattered in smaller cities will choose to sell lower-priced products, and their entry prices for consumers will be 15% cheaper than those in big city stores. Adidas had optimistically predicted before the Beijing Olympic Games that its Chinese sales would exceed 1 billion euros last year. Adidas vowed that this goal will be achieved this year.
As early as 2007, Adidas launched a brand new NEO brand for the Chinese market. It is targeted at young people between the ages of 14 and 19 years old. The design style is more fashionable and casual. The price is about half of that of the adidas sports performance series. The difference between sports brands is about 100 yuan. According to Nike's "50-yuan theory," when Nike, Adidas and other international brands of low-end product line and local brand price difference of 50 yuan or so, the consumer's psychological balance will fall to international brands. At present, NEO has quietly developed more than 600 stores in the country, and will add another 200 in the future.
Similar stories in the auto industry have just begun. According to the consulting firm Alix Partners, the percentage of self-owned brands’ sales in 2009 increased from 21% in 2004 to 32%, filling the market gap left by transnational giants: low-price markets. Consulting company J. D. According to a Power and Associates survey, most Chinese primary car buyers tend to prefer 60,000 yuan or less, but there are only a handful of international brands in this segment. With the annual sales of Chinese automobiles rising to tens of millions, multinational companies are determined to implement cross-border attacks against the background of limited capacity expansion in existing markets.
General Motors (GM) launched a local brand Po Chun to join the fiercely competitive low-priced car market. Kevin Wale, president of General Motors China, said: “We have decided many years ago that it is meaningful to compete in this market segment.†He predicts that GM will be able to sell 4 million to 6 million Bao Chun in the next five years. Brand cars, "On this point alone, this market is bigger than Germany."
On March 26 this year, Guangzhou Honda officially released a new brand concept for the Chinese market. In this regard, the former President Hirofumi Fukui is not rumored that the joint-venture company's own brand sold on the same channel as the Honda brand will focus on low-price small cars and compete directly with local auto brands.
As early as 7 years ago, when Guangben's production capacity jumped to 360,000 yuan, former Houtian China Investment Corp. General Manager Hou Houfang believes that simply expanding production capacity is not the best solution. It must develop targeted and localized local demand. The product. In the structure of the Guangben series at that time, there was indeed a lack of a real economy car. Judging from the appearance of the concept's first car S1, this car is indeed modest and not impressive, but it fits with the positioning of the national car and is priced at 7 to 90,000 yuan. “We can completely design a car beyond our imagination and turn it into a revolutionary thing, but this is not what consumers in this market want.†Yao Yiming, executive deputy general manager of Guangzhou Honda, told Global Entrepreneur.
According to Kwongmoto's idea, the idea is not satisfied with only low-priced small cars. The launch of the S1 is only a small part of their ambition. Guangben will develop and position localized products according to the Chinese market. Once the strategy is successful, the concept will develop to high-end models. At this point, Honda does not have a "ban," but it will always follow the principle that Honda's existing vehicles will be misaligned and will not form direct competition.
In order to launch the concept, Guangben's R&D personnel interviewed more than 3,000 target consumers, and some localized design concepts were eventually adopted. One of the most impressive suggestions made by Yao Yiming is that consumers want the front passenger compartment's storage compartment to be designed to be open and easy to pick up at any time. This is a detail that most models can't meet. However, even if it is a storage design requirement, it has encountered many problems during development: How to ensure that things do not fall out when driving? For this reason, the R&D company made repeated simulation tests for the tilt angle of the storage compartment.
The low price and high quality required by S1 is very much like the paradox — if the use of existing brands of parts, parts of technology, imported materials is costly, but looking for alternatives in the country, will have to pass Honda's check. For example, door handles, electric remote controls, components inside the engine, and so on, Honda requires tens of thousands of experiments over two years. In the end, 60% of the components of Concept S1 were redesigned.
For Kwongmoto, which has been established for 12 years, the concept also opened a new page for the joint venture car company. “The idea was born from China, but it is not confined to the Chinese market. It will grow up one day and export it overseas.†Yao Yiming said that this is as if the poetic map created in the United States had finally become part of the Honda’s global system.
If multinational corporations start to flock to the low-end market, will the good days of Chery, BYD, and Geely continue? Bad signs have appeared. After Beijing implemented the car shake number restriction policy this year, a BYD dealer said that most consumers may have to wait months or even 1 year to shake a license plate number, so they are very cautious about selecting cars and buying cars, and they consume a lot of money. Even if it is the first time to purchase a car, you also want to get it in one step. “Individual auto brands have become a 'disadvantaged group' in the market competition.†Although BYD has announced a new round of substantial price cuts, the actual effect is minimal.
It is easy for critics to make the Li Ning Company’s current difficulties a proof of the failure of its brand rebranding plan released at the end of June last year. This may explain some issues but not all. In fact, while Li Ning is replacing the new LOGO and thus redefining the brand connotation and product line, the integration of dealer networks is also ongoing. The decline in orders reflects the dealer's hesitation towards the new strategy - which is always inevitable.
The real problem is that when Li Ning wants to “sell more and more expensiveâ€, he only finds that consumers have not fully recognized their brand premium. Goldman Sachs said that Li Ning’s brand positioning is between the global high-end brands and the domestic mass market brands. This lack of clear value positioning and stuck status is risky.
However, Zhang Zhiyong knows that Li Ning must "make changes happen." The reason is that the driving force for the growth of China’s sporting goods industry in the past has declined. Zhang expects the industry average growth rate to be between 13% and 14% this year, compared with 35% before 2009.
However, a question naturally arises: the general trend of slowdown in the industry has rewritten Li Ning's financial figures. Why hasn't this affected the Anta (02020. HK) chasers? Last year, its turnover increased by 26.1% to 7.498 billion yuan. The amount of Q3 fairs in 2011 also increased by about 20% over the same period of last year, further narrowing the gap with Li Ning.
The reason is that Li Ning, as a red brand, and ANTA, a blue brand, are at different stages of development, and their core market levels are also different. In the large and first-tier cities, the growth rate of the industry has declined, and the higher the market is, the higher the relative growth rate is. In the third-tier market where Anta has an advantage, there are a large number of emerging consumers whose annual income per capita has just crossed $1,000.
Zhang Zhiyong said that this situation is similar to Li Ning 10 years ago. At that time, Li Ning’s products were also mainly located in such a low-cost segment. Emerging consumers in the first and second tier cities became their main source of market share, and they also grew rapidly. Therefore, "The best model for branding is done from the top down." Zhang said. When these consumers began to flock to the stores of Nike and Adidas, Li Ning can only retreat to the lower-line market, "so it becomes you can only choose the following market, squeezing down layers."
Li Ning came to the crossroads earlier than Anta. Either continue to retreat to the low-line market, or to the high-end market. In fact, the choice is not difficult to make. Deutsche Bank's statistics show that in 2004 China's sports consumer goods market's largest share comes from products below 200 RMB, accounting for 40%; 300-500 RMB accounts for 30%; and over 500 RMB accounts for 30%. However, by 2009, this data has undergone tremendous changes. The price of 300-500 yuan is more than 40% of the price, and the proportion of products with more than 500 yuan is comparable, but the product below 200 yuan has already dropped to 12 %. There is no doubt that the price range of more than 400 yuan will be the largest increase in the market. “Li Ning Company does not choose to participate in the basic market price-performance competition, but must participate in the competition of the mainstream urban value consumer market.†Li Ning himself said in an earlier internal speech.
In contrast, as a chaser, the brand can still make full use of China's urbanization process as long as it focuses on the mass market. Anta and Peak are expected to continue their strong growth in the next two years. However, Liao Tianshu, consultant consumer products expert in Boston, believes that these brands need to change the long-term to leave consumers with a "cheap concept." Because the price space of the sporting goods industry is not very broad, the price multiples of top brands and low-end brands are not large, so the customer groups that are constantly looking for consumption upgrades are still concentrated in the mid-range market. Enterprises should strive to have As a result.
Before it hit the ceiling, scale was still the top priority for blue brands. In the economy chain hotel industry, the 7-day story is similar. "At the beginning stage, it's more valuable to circulate to the ground than what you plant on the ground." Zheng Nanyan, CEO of 7 Days Inn, told Global Entrepreneur that "(the quality of the product) can be expanded step by step with your strength." optimization."
7 days is a typical example of Chinese expansion. As of December 31, 2010, a total of 568 hotels were put into operation on 7 days, including 321 direct sales stores and 247 management stores, with a total of 56,410 rooms. The scale has reached twice the number before listing in 2009, second only to Home Inns. In addition, there are 25 directly-operated stores in the preparatory period in 7 days, and 172 management stores have signed but not opened. The number of new stores announced in 2011 was 290, higher than Home Inns. The number of members is also growing rapidly. At the end of the 7th year of the year, members had already passed 16.5 million, an increase of 69.2% year-on-year. The number of valid members is 5.6 million, and the number of such homes is 3.8 million.
Zheng Nanyan has observed the changing rule of the proportion of effective members. If the speed of opening a store slows down, the proportion will rise to 50%; and as soon as the speed increases, the proportion will drop. Because each store opened, there will be a surrounding propaganda effect, leading to more people to register. For 7 days, the big advantage of the registered member base is that the number of members converted from consumption will also increase.
The secret of Zheng’s expansion is to fully empower the manager, encourage internal competition, and even “internal mergersâ€. The managers with excellent operating results in the previous two quarters have the right to issue "merger invitations" for poorly performing stores. After the manager took over the management, according to the headquarters and his own set task completion rate, he could get more profit. "The 7-day manager will always face competition and he must be motivated. If he does not have the motivation or participation in such competition, he will be squeezed out by others." Zheng Nanyan said.
Speed ​​and scale are still the rules of the game in this industry. The customer groups that can be affected by budget hotels are all able to accept the following accommodations from Samsung. The number of hotels under Samsung in China is now in the range of 2 to 30,000, so it is conservatively estimated that the overall size of economic chain hotels as strong alternative competitors will not fall below this figure. At present, the top four brands account for less than 10% of the market, which means that the top four brands can reach at least 2,000 scales before they enter the market saturation period. "The sooner one achieves this scale, the more influential and valuable it is. Based on this, we have formulated a rapid expansion strategy," Zheng said.
In this regard, Home CEO Sun Jian also holds the same view. However, Sun also saw another market: four and five-star hotels. In 2008, Home Inn launched the Hehe brand. Sun believes that China's high-end hotels do not have a real platform. In second-tier cities and fourth-tier cities, such hotels are mostly single-based, and mid-range hotels have not yet formed scale. Consumer upgrades will enable consumers to seek higher quality products. . At the same time, cost pressures have forced Home Home to increase the value and price of its products and seek greater profit margins.
The birth of harmony is not easy. The global financial crisis slowed down the growth of harmony for two years. It was only at the end of last year that Hehe began to work hard to enter the second and third tier markets such as Chengdu, Xi’an, and Taiyuan. Sun hopes to copy the competitive genes of Home Inn to the harmony, which is to focus on the feelings of the guests and remove all unnecessary designs and services. The first hotel in Shanghai Caobao Road was designed by designers from California. The carpet in the hallway is a black background representing the universe, each room has different colors of lighting, blue indicates vacant, red Said someone lived. Furniture is piano paint and the cost of each room is 120,000 yuan.
Sun Jian soon discovered that such complicated designs abroad would be a fatal blow to a home-houser who is good at operating a chain hotel—it cannot be replicated on a large scale. Sun started to do subtraction, cut down unnecessary designs, and also calculated the return on investment: The investment is almost twice as fast as home, but sales revenue can reach 1.8 times that of the latter. "The harmony is just a new engine for future development. It is still far behind the current home-fastness. It can't put the cart before the horse." Sun Jian said, "Maybe it can become the main engine after 10 years, but today it cannot be seen that way."
If the home is moving upwards, international high-end hotel brands are also accelerating their penetration into the mid-range market. InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) CEO Andrew Cosslet said that to open the Chinese market must follow the pyramid principle: to enter the five-star hotel, and then radiate from the boutique concept and the mid-market hotel. The Intercontinental Holiday Inn Beijing Lido opened in 1984, making it the first international hotel chain to enter China.
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Do the epic Chinese economy's rapid growth progress slow?
Bad news is enough. The cost of raw materials, labor, and land has continued to rise, squeezing profits from many manufacturing and retail companies, and transferring them to consumers is not easy. Li & Fung, Hong Kong-based consumer goods sourcing and logistics company, a major supplier of major retail companies such as Wal-Mart, warned that “a new era of price increases for purchases†has arrived. For the world economy, this Predicts the end of deflation led by China.
This unusual situation indicates that the era of cheap manufacturing in China is rudely ending. In the past 20 years, Chinese entrepreneurs have only two words in the dictionary: scale. China has courageously invested a large amount of funds in infrastructure such as transportation, eventually helping many small businesses originating in the local market to go to the country. The traditional marginal cost theory plays a role: Only a crazy commodity is needed to quickly send a company into the cloud.
Today, such miracles are not surprising. As a result, when the domestic champions of some industries began to experience contagious slowdowns and setbacks, one can't help wondering how these embarrassing phenomena occur.
The most representative is Li Ning Co., Ltd. in the sporting goods industry. Since its founder of the same name, Li Ning, a former Chinese gymnast, flared into the torch without fear of gravity at the opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 20-year-old company has now fallen heavily on Earth. . In December of last year, the number of orders for Li Ning’s second-quarter (Q2) ordering meeting fell astonishingly: the increase was zero, causing investors to dump their shares in large quantities. Although Li Ning was the largest sporting goods manufacturer in China for a long time in the past, and surpassed Adidas in 2009 to become the second runner-up in the Chinese market, many investors and observers believed that Li Ning really met this time. To the trouble.
Li Ning’s 2010 annual report, which is not too bright, is also expected: The annual revenue is 9.479 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0% year-on-year, which is lower than the compound annual growth rate of over 30% in the past 10 years. Although the market is still digesting the bad news of the decline in Q2 orders in 2011, Li Ning CEO Zhang Zhiyong further reminded at the launch of the annual report that Q3 is expected to be the lowest point of the year. If there is no immediate rescue pill pill, the growth rate of Li Ning will still be at a relatively low level this year. Li Ning, accustomed to long-term advancement, seems to need to try hard.
This terrible collapse also appears in the automotive industry. On August 3 last year, BYD Auto (01211.HK) announced that it will reduce its sales target from the previous 800,000 to 600,000. In spite of this, the automaker, which was strongly driven by stockholder Warren Buffett's stock, has not yet completed its mission. It sold only 519,800 vehicles in the year, and its net profit fell 33.5% year-on-year.
The situation of Chery, which is the No. 1 auto brand, is similar: the original target for the entire year was 700,000 vehicles, but only 662,000 vehicles were actually sold. Chery’s efforts to enter the high-end market are also frustrating. In 2009, Chery launched two brands, "Resort" and "Wei Lin," which were positioned in the mid-to-high end, but sales were poor. Recently, it has announced the cancellation of the establishment of Wei Lin Business Division for half a year. The brand has returned to Chery's sales company.
It's not easy to figure out what's going on. Simply put, the rapid growth achieved by relying on low-cost manufacturing's comparative advantage and control over the retail scale has been difficult to sustain. If we want to write memoirs, we can begin now. Chinese companies in the local championship have touched the ceiling of brand upgrades earlier than their peers. Consumers continue to look for more cost-effective products, but I am sorry that they have turned to multinational companies’ brands as their purchasing power increases. embrace. A research report by Credit Suisse demonstrated the difficulty of Li Ning challenging Nike: When the family’s monthly income exceeds RMB 7,000, Chinese consumers’ preference will shift from domestic brands to foreign brands. The Chinese brands that want to become global champions do not seem to have completely conquered the local market, let alone other overseas markets.
We observed similar phenomena in at least four industries. In addition to the sporting goods industry and the automotive industry mentioned above, the white goods industry and the hotel industry have shown similar characteristics. However, the situation is slightly better: Haier, which has been promoted to be the world's largest white-electricity manufacturer, has not experienced a decline in sales and is working hard to build the high-end terminal brand Casa Di to win the favor of high-value consumers; China's largest economy hotel chain home Although the market is far from saturated, it has also launched the Hefei brand to enter the four- and five-star hotel market.
In the end, many Chinese companies seem to have just realized that their past fascination with scale made them miss something more crucial. Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said that BYD should pay more attention to "quality of car sales" instead of "pursuing market share blindly." He also said that we have focused too much on growth in the past few years. This is wrong. Yin Tongyue, chairman and general manager of Chery Automobile, also said at the beginning of this year: “It would rather fall to ten companies and implement a strategic transformation of the company.†In 2011, Chery will shorten the front line, focus on quality improvement, and increase the brand premium, instead of blindly The pursuit of quantity and speed.
Another obvious trend is that the previously clearly defined default market sphere is being broken. The multinational brands that can be called "gold brands" also learn to use China's low-cost manufacturing resources. In the past, they were sticking to the high-end market. Now, they are starting to compete for low-end and middle-end consumers by launching sub-brands or more cost-effective products, and speeding up the extension of retail networks to third and fourth-tier cities. This forces "red brands" - these homegrown champions face two choices: up or down? Is it continuing to retire to the lower end of the market, or is it making a positive battle with high-priced and oversized, first-tier cities and gold brands? Due to their different positions and stages, those “blue brands†have not yet felt the pressure of the red brands. They can still capture the emerging consumers in the low-end market with low prices and channel scale.
Take the sporting goods industry as an example. Liao Tianshu, partner and managing director of Boston Consulting Group, believes that a wave of overall slowdown will develop from first-tier cities to low-tier cities. The bases of Anta may not yet exist in third-tier cities. Feel it. However, “when a wave hits the waves, if Anta stays at a stage where it completely competes with price, it will be very bad.†Liao introduced.
This is indeed a multiple-choice question for the future: Where do these red brands choose to fight? The key to winning is how to take a dominant position in an increasingly large midmarket. As more and more Chinese consumers have stepped into the middle class, the structure of the dumbbell-shaped consumer groups has gradually changed. They are not satisfied with purchasing low-priced products and increasingly prefer to participate in the treasure hunting game in the mid-range market. In a survey of Chinese consumers conducted last year, McKinsey said that from 2008 to 2009, half of China's retail market growth came from consumption upgrades.
The problem is that Li Ning and Chery, who are ambitious and want to increase the gold content of their brands, find that it is not easy to have such a premium capability. The report and analysis of this article will begin with the topic of “How to Lose Scale Advantage†and discuss one by one how the downward penetration of gold brands and the upgrading of consumer spending will lead to a “fatal encounter,†the difficulty and choice of the premium for red brands.†Where is the battle, and how to do it.
How the scale advantage was lost During the industrial period, the “world factory†was located in Lancashire in the northeast of England. By the 1830s, the number of industrial machines owned was once greater than that of the rest of the world. The total number is even more - that is the era of shuttles and steam engines. In China, looking for a portrait that could best represent the ancient agricultural country's transition to industrialization may be the young girls in the Chinese Women Workers written by Pan Yi, a sociological investigator. “This stage of the transition from adolescence to marriage,†Pan wrote, “meshing in with the social time in which China transitioned from a planned economy to a market economy.â€
This is the two sides of the Chinese-style miracle: prosperity and uneasiness behind it. For more than 30 years, China’s low labor cost has provided a “demographic dividend†for the “China model†in the globalization process. However, the reality that China faces is the closure of the demographic dividend window period in less than a decade. With the advent of an aging society, China’s rural surplus labor is far from imagined. China is shifting from a surplus of labor to an era of labor shortage. Due to labor-related tension last year, many large factories in China were suspended. When Foxconn’s Shenzhen factory suffered a series of suicides by workers, public criticism and dissatisfaction reached its peak.
According to Feng Guojing, chairman of Li & Fung Group, the dispute surrounding Foxconn is an epoch-making event. Feng believes that this will not only mark the end of the era of the labor force, such as excrement, but will also trigger reflections on the entire industrial park system on which China's economic growth has been dependent for the past 30 years. "We can now call it the former Foxconn and post-Foxconn times. Foxconn events are indeed so important." He said.
According to Morgan Stanley, over the past 10 years, the real hourly wage increase of Chinese manufacturing has reached 12.7% per year. The United States is down by 0.5% each year. The hourly output of Chinese workers is 21% of the United States, but wages are only 11% of the United States. This gap will begin to shrink. “The increase in labor costs since 2010 has been explosive growth.†Zhang Zhiyong, CEO of Li Ning, told Global Entrepreneurs. Li Ning's average wage per worker for most foundries has reached between 1,800 and 5,000 yuan, and is expected to increase by 10-15% in the future. Inflicted on this, JPMorgan's managing director, China Securities and Commodity Department Li Jing believes that in the sub-sectors such as construction, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, the impact of wage increases will be greatest.
This is not yet. With regard to the cost of raw materials, it is not necessary to list a number of macro figures. All walks of life have experienced a sharp increase in prices, which directly affects the profitability of the manufacturing and retail industries.
The narrowing of the elastic space for large-scale manufacturing has also been the rise of China’s new economic zone. It has made consumers’ shopping preferences increasingly more regionally differentiated, which means that a single product has a very large scale. Manufacturing and sales have been difficult to achieve.
The Chinese market has been connected by a city and a city. According to the ClusterMap method, McKinsey divides Chinese cities into 22 urban agglomerations. Each agglomeration develops around one or two central cities. All satellite cities A central city is no more than 300 kilometers away, and each city group's GDP exceeds 1% of China's total urban GDP. This method of division shows that the purchasing habits of consumers in different cities—even though separated by hundreds of kilometers—have great differences. For example, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have a driving distance of only 3 hours, but they have a population structure, language, and consumer preferences. There is a world of difference. Four-fifths of Shenzhen residents are migrant workers, mostly under the age of 35. They speak Mandarin or their dialect and like bars. The population of Guangzhou is only 1/4, and the population is older. It mainly speaks Cantonese and is used to eating tea in restaurants. The difference between the two is no less than the difference between France and Germany.
Few companies will use the same strategy between the French and German markets, but similar practices are common in China. They focus more on nurturing the largest markets and ignore the differences between the hundreds of cities in China. This is also the reason why Li Ning began to adjust the organizational structure of the sales system in March of last year. The entire Chinese market is divided into three regions: East China, North China, and South China. It is no longer the headquarters of the unified ordering, but the major regions according to the local market. Features to hold an ordering meeting to determine the mix of goods and time to market.
The logic of Zhang Zhiyong is very simple: In the past, the magical power of relying on the number of stores opened to achieve scale growth was lost. Although there are still room to expand retail terminals in third and fourth-tier cities, due to the increase in real estate rentals and labor costs, the profit rate of single stores is declining. Li Ning added 1,004 new stores in 2009, 80% of which were located in second-tier and third-tier cities, but same-store sales increased from 25.8% in 2008 to -2.3%. The shop rental cost has already accounted for 25% to 30% of dealer sales.
This is also the reason why Li Ning began to vigorously integrate dealer networks in the middle of last year. Integrate scattered small retailers with only a single facade into a larger dealer system to further enhance channel efficiency and management. The numbers prove everything: Li Ning had 7,915 stores in 2010 and 7,249 in 2009. It is not true that the so-called "store closures" due to falling orders and failure to rebrand.
In the sporting goods market, the entire consumer demand is divided into three levels: first-tier cities have entered mature markets, second and third-tier markets are transitioning from basic to mass markets, and the four-, five-, and six-tier markets are basically still in a state of consumption entry. . At present, the intensive cultivation of Nike and Adidas has been completed in the front line. The next step is to infiltrate into the second and third lines; while domestic brands such as Li Ning and Anta continue to grow at the scale of opening stores. As the growth rate of the industry is reduced, the cost of materials, labor, and the cost of retail channels increase, the industry power to simply realize the scale of opening a store will be greatly reduced, and shops with a low level of efficiency will not be able to make ends meet. Due to the large differences between different levels of cities, it is difficult to achieve "standard" copy of the format in the low-tier cities and feel the lack of expansion. In first and second-tier cities, stores that have been operating for many years are often difficult to take root in third- and fourth-tier cities. The level of effectiveness is generally only 50-80% of those in first-tier cities. Some of them even after years of adjustment are not profitable.
Sporting goods currently cover the first-tier and second-tier markets, and channel providers are mostly brand-operated sports retailers. Their store locations, retail scale, retail operation capabilities, logistics and information capabilities have been consummated; other low-level markets are mostly single. Brand-based retailers are more sensitive to market fluctuations. "If there is not enough brand premium, subject to factors such as rising rents and slower growth of the industry, these shops in low-level markets will fall into losses," said Zhang.
The precondition for realizing profits is whether it can achieve a high brand premium, which is also the original intention of the reshaping of the Li Ning brand. In order to help the dealers transition, Li Ning lowered the purchase price this year, giving dealers a deduction point of 3% per year, improving the core competitiveness of department stores, retail store operations, information, and logistics.
However, due to the complexity of the domestic market, it is not possible to manage different regional markets with a unified, simple and amplifying system across the country, which has exacerbated the difficulty of market expansion.
The first is the obvious regional differences among consumers. According to McKinsey's survey, of the important factors that govern the differences in consumer behavior, the impact of regional differences exceeds the key factors such as the city hierarchy and income level. The complexity of the Chinese market is equal to the sum of more than a dozen foreign countries. For example, regional differences in the female underwear market are very obvious. Female consumers in metropolitan areas are most concerned about the use of materials, workmanship and fit, while female consumers in smaller cities are more concerned with the appearance of bright colors and lace. Female consumers in the North like to design sexy, bold and printed underwear, while female consumers in the South prefer dark colors.
Followed by scattered suppliers and logistics systems. There are about 21 million retail outlets in China, and the total market share of the top five retailers in the consumer goods market is only one-fifth, even if countries like India, Indonesia, Ukraine, and Russia account for at least It is twice that of China. In addition to individual consumer product categories such as home appliances, the vast majority of China's consumer product market still needs to face an extremely fragmented supplier system. In addition, the lack of efficient information management systems and professionals also restricts the management of the retail industry.
Competition makes brand owners in the frontline and leading second-tier cities need to consider continuously subdividing and improving the existing mature "standard" format, and update the definition of "standard" according to the new needs of consumers. Just like the pursuit of parity, retail terminals can also use “time economy†to divide the shopping time of consumers to create higher unit time sales; use the golden sales period to change the proportion of store displays and high-price products. , to increase sales.
In this respect, Li Ning still has much room for improvement. When Zhang Zhiyong visited the Southern Market in November last year, he discovered that many Li Ning store down apparel had been heavily loaded. In his view, down products are too early to be put on the market. Invalid goods not only have a backlog of normal sales schedules, but also easily cause inventory to dealers. "These retail details are opportunities for efficiency growth." Zhang said. Li Ning previously provided more than 1,000 SKUs per quarter (stock units differentiated by color, style, etc.), but now there are only six or seven hundred SKUs in market segments such as the Eastern, Southern, and Northern Districts, with the rest being the product division. Active filtering. Zhang Zhiyong even stipulated that before the new products are listed on the market, the product department needs to filter the products once again, delineate the products for the specific market's consumer demand, and then communicate with the customer's buyers one by one. In order to speed up the reaction, Li Ning has increased support for back-office logistics. The logistics base in Jingmen will have a radius of 900 kilometers in the future, increasing the delivery speed by 36% to 48%, and covering about 50% of retail stores.
The emergence of numerous new businesses in China's retail market has also exacerbated the difficulty of scale management, such as shopping malls, outlets, and factory stores. An important strategy of Li Ning this year is to expand the number of factory stores. In 2010, the factory stores accounted for 6-8% of Li Ning's total sales, and will increase to 15% in the future. In general, there will be a 1/4 increase in inventory for each retail store opened. These reasonable stocks need to be digested.
The loss of fatal encounters in scale has been depressing enough. If nothing is done, Zhang Zhiyong sees a more terrible future: As multinational companies gradually penetrate downwards, Chinese consumers’ spending power will increase, and the two will meet. It is doomed, but "will be catastrophic for Chinese brands."
Multinational companies are indeed doing this. After being overtaken by Li Ning in the Chinese market in 2009, Adidas announced in November last year that it would open 2,500 new stores in China. The key point is that this more extensive sales network will cover 1,400 Chinese cities, with a shift in focus from near-saturated first-tier cities. Small cities and less wealthy consumers. In cities that will cover more than 500,000 people from the beginning, “we will cover seven-tier cities by 2015.†said Christophe Bezu, managing director of Adidas Greater China, which means that those with a population of only 50,000 or more Adidas will appear in the towns. At the same time, these stores scattered in smaller cities will choose to sell lower-priced products, and their entry prices for consumers will be 15% cheaper than those in big city stores. Adidas had optimistically predicted before the Beijing Olympic Games that its Chinese sales would exceed 1 billion euros last year. Adidas vowed that this goal will be achieved this year.
As early as 2007, Adidas launched a brand new NEO brand for the Chinese market. It is targeted at young people between the ages of 14 and 19 years old. The design style is more fashionable and casual. The price is about half of that of the adidas sports performance series. The difference between sports brands is about 100 yuan. According to Nike's "50-yuan theory," when Nike, Adidas and other international brands of low-end product line and local brand price difference of 50 yuan or so, the consumer's psychological balance will fall to international brands. At present, NEO has quietly developed more than 600 stores in the country, and will add another 200 in the future.
Similar stories in the auto industry have just begun. According to the consulting firm Alix Partners, the percentage of self-owned brands’ sales in 2009 increased from 21% in 2004 to 32%, filling the market gap left by transnational giants: low-price markets. Consulting company J. D. According to a Power and Associates survey, most Chinese primary car buyers tend to prefer 60,000 yuan or less, but there are only a handful of international brands in this segment. With the annual sales of Chinese automobiles rising to tens of millions, multinational companies are determined to implement cross-border attacks against the background of limited capacity expansion in existing markets.
General Motors (GM) launched a local brand Po Chun to join the fiercely competitive low-priced car market. Kevin Wale, president of General Motors China, said: “We have decided many years ago that it is meaningful to compete in this market segment.†He predicts that GM will be able to sell 4 million to 6 million Bao Chun in the next five years. Brand cars, "On this point alone, this market is bigger than Germany."
On March 26 this year, Guangzhou Honda officially released a new brand concept for the Chinese market. In this regard, the former President Hirofumi Fukui is not rumored that the joint-venture company's own brand sold on the same channel as the Honda brand will focus on low-price small cars and compete directly with local auto brands.
As early as 7 years ago, when Guangben's production capacity jumped to 360,000 yuan, former Houtian China Investment Corp. General Manager Hou Houfang believes that simply expanding production capacity is not the best solution. It must develop targeted and localized local demand. The product. In the structure of the Guangben series at that time, there was indeed a lack of a real economy car. Judging from the appearance of the concept's first car S1, this car is indeed modest and not impressive, but it fits with the positioning of the national car and is priced at 7 to 90,000 yuan. “We can completely design a car beyond our imagination and turn it into a revolutionary thing, but this is not what consumers in this market want.†Yao Yiming, executive deputy general manager of Guangzhou Honda, told Global Entrepreneur.
According to Kwongmoto's idea, the idea is not satisfied with only low-priced small cars. The launch of the S1 is only a small part of their ambition. Guangben will develop and position localized products according to the Chinese market. Once the strategy is successful, the concept will develop to high-end models. At this point, Honda does not have a "ban," but it will always follow the principle that Honda's existing vehicles will be misaligned and will not form direct competition.
In order to launch the concept, Guangben's R&D personnel interviewed more than 3,000 target consumers, and some localized design concepts were eventually adopted. One of the most impressive suggestions made by Yao Yiming is that consumers want the front passenger compartment's storage compartment to be designed to be open and easy to pick up at any time. This is a detail that most models can't meet. However, even if it is a storage design requirement, it has encountered many problems during development: How to ensure that things do not fall out when driving? For this reason, the R&D company made repeated simulation tests for the tilt angle of the storage compartment.
The low price and high quality required by S1 is very much like the paradox — if the use of existing brands of parts, parts of technology, imported materials is costly, but looking for alternatives in the country, will have to pass Honda's check. For example, door handles, electric remote controls, components inside the engine, and so on, Honda requires tens of thousands of experiments over two years. In the end, 60% of the components of Concept S1 were redesigned.
For Kwongmoto, which has been established for 12 years, the concept also opened a new page for the joint venture car company. “The idea was born from China, but it is not confined to the Chinese market. It will grow up one day and export it overseas.†Yao Yiming said that this is as if the poetic map created in the United States had finally become part of the Honda’s global system.
If multinational corporations start to flock to the low-end market, will the good days of Chery, BYD, and Geely continue? Bad signs have appeared. After Beijing implemented the car shake number restriction policy this year, a BYD dealer said that most consumers may have to wait months or even 1 year to shake a license plate number, so they are very cautious about selecting cars and buying cars, and they consume a lot of money. Even if it is the first time to purchase a car, you also want to get it in one step. “Individual auto brands have become a 'disadvantaged group' in the market competition.†Although BYD has announced a new round of substantial price cuts, the actual effect is minimal.
It is easy for critics to make the Li Ning Company’s current difficulties a proof of the failure of its brand rebranding plan released at the end of June last year. This may explain some issues but not all. In fact, while Li Ning is replacing the new LOGO and thus redefining the brand connotation and product line, the integration of dealer networks is also ongoing. The decline in orders reflects the dealer's hesitation towards the new strategy - which is always inevitable.
The real problem is that when Li Ning wants to “sell more and more expensiveâ€, he only finds that consumers have not fully recognized their brand premium. Goldman Sachs said that Li Ning’s brand positioning is between the global high-end brands and the domestic mass market brands. This lack of clear value positioning and stuck status is risky.
However, Zhang Zhiyong knows that Li Ning must "make changes happen." The reason is that the driving force for the growth of China’s sporting goods industry in the past has declined. Zhang expects the industry average growth rate to be between 13% and 14% this year, compared with 35% before 2009.
However, a question naturally arises: the general trend of slowdown in the industry has rewritten Li Ning's financial figures. Why hasn't this affected the Anta (02020. HK) chasers? Last year, its turnover increased by 26.1% to 7.498 billion yuan. The amount of Q3 fairs in 2011 also increased by about 20% over the same period of last year, further narrowing the gap with Li Ning.
The reason is that Li Ning, as a red brand, and ANTA, a blue brand, are at different stages of development, and their core market levels are also different. In the large and first-tier cities, the growth rate of the industry has declined, and the higher the market is, the higher the relative growth rate is. In the third-tier market where Anta has an advantage, there are a large number of emerging consumers whose annual income per capita has just crossed $1,000.
Zhang Zhiyong said that this situation is similar to Li Ning 10 years ago. At that time, Li Ning’s products were also mainly located in such a low-cost segment. Emerging consumers in the first and second tier cities became their main source of market share, and they also grew rapidly. Therefore, "The best model for branding is done from the top down." Zhang said. When these consumers began to flock to the stores of Nike and Adidas, Li Ning can only retreat to the lower-line market, "so it becomes you can only choose the following market, squeezing down layers."
Li Ning came to the crossroads earlier than Anta. Either continue to retreat to the low-line market, or to the high-end market. In fact, the choice is not difficult to make. Deutsche Bank's statistics show that in 2004 China's sports consumer goods market's largest share comes from products below 200 RMB, accounting for 40%; 300-500 RMB accounts for 30%; and over 500 RMB accounts for 30%. However, by 2009, this data has undergone tremendous changes. The price of 300-500 yuan is more than 40% of the price, and the proportion of products with more than 500 yuan is comparable, but the product below 200 yuan has already dropped to 12 %. There is no doubt that the price range of more than 400 yuan will be the largest increase in the market. “Li Ning Company does not choose to participate in the basic market price-performance competition, but must participate in the competition of the mainstream urban value consumer market.†Li Ning himself said in an earlier internal speech.
In contrast, as a chaser, the brand can still make full use of China's urbanization process as long as it focuses on the mass market. Anta and Peak are expected to continue their strong growth in the next two years. However, Liao Tianshu, consultant consumer products expert in Boston, believes that these brands need to change the long-term to leave consumers with a "cheap concept." Because the price space of the sporting goods industry is not very broad, the price multiples of top brands and low-end brands are not large, so the customer groups that are constantly looking for consumption upgrades are still concentrated in the mid-range market. Enterprises should strive to have As a result.
Before it hit the ceiling, scale was still the top priority for blue brands. In the economy chain hotel industry, the 7-day story is similar. "At the beginning stage, it's more valuable to circulate to the ground than what you plant on the ground." Zheng Nanyan, CEO of 7 Days Inn, told Global Entrepreneur that "(the quality of the product) can be expanded step by step with your strength." optimization."
7 days is a typical example of Chinese expansion. As of December 31, 2010, a total of 568 hotels were put into operation on 7 days, including 321 direct sales stores and 247 management stores, with a total of 56,410 rooms. The scale has reached twice the number before listing in 2009, second only to Home Inns. In addition, there are 25 directly-operated stores in the preparatory period in 7 days, and 172 management stores have signed but not opened. The number of new stores announced in 2011 was 290, higher than Home Inns. The number of members is also growing rapidly. At the end of the 7th year of the year, members had already passed 16.5 million, an increase of 69.2% year-on-year. The number of valid members is 5.6 million, and the number of such homes is 3.8 million.
Zheng Nanyan has observed the changing rule of the proportion of effective members. If the speed of opening a store slows down, the proportion will rise to 50%; and as soon as the speed increases, the proportion will drop. Because each store opened, there will be a surrounding propaganda effect, leading to more people to register. For 7 days, the big advantage of the registered member base is that the number of members converted from consumption will also increase.
The secret of Zheng’s expansion is to fully empower the manager, encourage internal competition, and even “internal mergersâ€. The managers with excellent operating results in the previous two quarters have the right to issue "merger invitations" for poorly performing stores. After the manager took over the management, according to the headquarters and his own set task completion rate, he could get more profit. "The 7-day manager will always face competition and he must be motivated. If he does not have the motivation or participation in such competition, he will be squeezed out by others." Zheng Nanyan said.
Speed ​​and scale are still the rules of the game in this industry. The customer groups that can be affected by budget hotels are all able to accept the following accommodations from Samsung. The number of hotels under Samsung in China is now in the range of 2 to 30,000, so it is conservatively estimated that the overall size of economic chain hotels as strong alternative competitors will not fall below this figure. At present, the top four brands account for less than 10% of the market, which means that the top four brands can reach at least 2,000 scales before they enter the market saturation period. "The sooner one achieves this scale, the more influential and valuable it is. Based on this, we have formulated a rapid expansion strategy," Zheng said.
In this regard, Home CEO Sun Jian also holds the same view. However, Sun also saw another market: four and five-star hotels. In 2008, Home Inn launched the Hehe brand. Sun believes that China's high-end hotels do not have a real platform. In second-tier cities and fourth-tier cities, such hotels are mostly single-based, and mid-range hotels have not yet formed scale. Consumer upgrades will enable consumers to seek higher quality products. . At the same time, cost pressures have forced Home Home to increase the value and price of its products and seek greater profit margins.
The birth of harmony is not easy. The global financial crisis slowed down the growth of harmony for two years. It was only at the end of last year that Hehe began to work hard to enter the second and third tier markets such as Chengdu, Xi’an, and Taiyuan. Sun hopes to copy the competitive genes of Home Inn to the harmony, which is to focus on the feelings of the guests and remove all unnecessary designs and services. The first hotel in Shanghai Caobao Road was designed by designers from California. The carpet in the hallway is a black background representing the universe, each room has different colors of lighting, blue indicates vacant, red Said someone lived. Furniture is piano paint and the cost of each room is 120,000 yuan.
Sun Jian soon discovered that such complicated designs abroad would be a fatal blow to a home-houser who is good at operating a chain hotel—it cannot be replicated on a large scale. Sun started to do subtraction, cut down unnecessary designs, and also calculated the return on investment: The investment is almost twice as fast as home, but sales revenue can reach 1.8 times that of the latter. "The harmony is just a new engine for future development. It is still far behind the current home-fastness. It can't put the cart before the horse." Sun Jian said, "Maybe it can become the main engine after 10 years, but today it cannot be seen that way."
If the home is moving upwards, international high-end hotel brands are also accelerating their penetration into the mid-range market. InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) CEO Andrew Cosslet said that to open the Chinese market must follow the pyramid principle: to enter the five-star hotel, and then radiate from the boutique concept and the mid-market hotel. The Intercontinental Holiday Inn Beijing Lido opened in 1984, making it the first international hotel chain to enter China.
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