At the beginning of the new cotton season, institutions appear more cautious. The profit rate is still positive, but it is lower than in the previous cotton season and it is comparable to that of other competing crops such as soybeans and corn. Therefore, in some Brazilian states and other countries, the growth of cotton acreage is limited.
In the 2010-11 cotton season, cotton supply rose sharply in both Brazil and the world, but demand did not follow this pace. In Brazil, based on data obtained from food supply companies, production in the 2010-11 cotton season increased by 64% to 1.96 million tons. This is due to the fact that the cotton planting area increased by 67.6% to 1.4 million hectares. On the other hand, demand fell by 8% to 955,000 tons. As a result, the only alternative is export. In the 2011 cotton season (up to November), Brazil exported 646,700 tons of cotton, of which 595,500 tons were exported in July-November.
For the 2011-12 cotton season, data from Brazil's Grain Supply Company showed that the cotton planting area may contract by 2.7% from the 2010-11 cotton season, totaling 1.36 million hectares. The decline in cotton acreage was attributable to the decline in cotton prices at home and abroad and high survival costs. However, data from producer associations indicate that, for example, data from the Producers' Association of Mato Grosso differs from that of Brazil's Grain Supply Company.
From the perspective of the entire world, in the cotton season of 2010-11, cotton planting area increased by 11.2%, and production rose by 13.4%, according to the US Department of Agriculture. In addition, demand has fallen by 4% due to high cotton prices, resulting in man-made fibers replacing natural fibers.
In December, the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that the output of the world's 2011-12 cotton season will reach 26.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. Demand may total 24.24 million tons (US Department of Agriculture data), which is 2.5% lower than last season and the lowest since the 2008-09 cotton season.
It is worth mentioning that in the 2011-12 cotton season, US cotton production will decline by 12.6% year-on-year, and this reality will affect US exports and may benefit other international cotton exporters. According to the US Department of Agriculture, in the 2011-12 cotton season, US cotton exports could reach 2.5 million tons, which is 21.4% lower than the previous cotton season.
This is important for countries that have domestic supply surpluses, such as Brazil, Australia, and India. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that India’s cotton exports during the 2011-12 cotton season may increase by 17.7% to 1.3 million tons; Australia’s cotton exports may increase by 59.5% to 781 million tons, and Brazil’s cotton exports may increase by 90.1% to reach 81.7. Ten thousand tons. As a result, Brazil has become the fourth largest cotton exporter in the world.
However, this situation may change in the next cotton season, mainly because Brazil's cotton planting area is maintained at about 1.4 million hectares.
For the 2012-13 cotton season, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) showed that the total cotton planting area in the world reached 33.3 million hectares, which was a drop of 8% year-on-year. Production may fall by 6% to 25.14 million tons, but it is still higher than demand and is expected to reach 25.2 million tons.
Supply and demand data show that there is no room for a sharp rise in prices in the coming months and years to come. If the demand rises sharply, this situation may change. However, concerns about the debt crisis in the euro zone make this prediction difficult to achieve.
In the 2010-11 cotton season, cotton supply rose sharply in both Brazil and the world, but demand did not follow this pace. In Brazil, based on data obtained from food supply companies, production in the 2010-11 cotton season increased by 64% to 1.96 million tons. This is due to the fact that the cotton planting area increased by 67.6% to 1.4 million hectares. On the other hand, demand fell by 8% to 955,000 tons. As a result, the only alternative is export. In the 2011 cotton season (up to November), Brazil exported 646,700 tons of cotton, of which 595,500 tons were exported in July-November.
For the 2011-12 cotton season, data from Brazil's Grain Supply Company showed that the cotton planting area may contract by 2.7% from the 2010-11 cotton season, totaling 1.36 million hectares. The decline in cotton acreage was attributable to the decline in cotton prices at home and abroad and high survival costs. However, data from producer associations indicate that, for example, data from the Producers' Association of Mato Grosso differs from that of Brazil's Grain Supply Company.
From the perspective of the entire world, in the cotton season of 2010-11, cotton planting area increased by 11.2%, and production rose by 13.4%, according to the US Department of Agriculture. In addition, demand has fallen by 4% due to high cotton prices, resulting in man-made fibers replacing natural fibers.
In December, the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that the output of the world's 2011-12 cotton season will reach 26.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. Demand may total 24.24 million tons (US Department of Agriculture data), which is 2.5% lower than last season and the lowest since the 2008-09 cotton season.
It is worth mentioning that in the 2011-12 cotton season, US cotton production will decline by 12.6% year-on-year, and this reality will affect US exports and may benefit other international cotton exporters. According to the US Department of Agriculture, in the 2011-12 cotton season, US cotton exports could reach 2.5 million tons, which is 21.4% lower than the previous cotton season.
This is important for countries that have domestic supply surpluses, such as Brazil, Australia, and India. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that India’s cotton exports during the 2011-12 cotton season may increase by 17.7% to 1.3 million tons; Australia’s cotton exports may increase by 59.5% to 781 million tons, and Brazil’s cotton exports may increase by 90.1% to reach 81.7. Ten thousand tons. As a result, Brazil has become the fourth largest cotton exporter in the world.
However, this situation may change in the next cotton season, mainly because Brazil's cotton planting area is maintained at about 1.4 million hectares.
For the 2012-13 cotton season, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) showed that the total cotton planting area in the world reached 33.3 million hectares, which was a drop of 8% year-on-year. Production may fall by 6% to 25.14 million tons, but it is still higher than demand and is expected to reach 25.2 million tons.
Supply and demand data show that there is no room for a sharp rise in prices in the coming months and years to come. If the demand rises sharply, this situation may change. However, concerns about the debt crisis in the euro zone make this prediction difficult to achieve.
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