Who stirs the emerald?

The jadeite market has experienced a dramatic price surge in recent years, with industry estimates suggesting that prices have risen by 30% to 50% from the beginning of this year. Top-quality jadeite, however, has seen an even more dramatic increase—some pieces have jumped by as much as 100% to 200%. This sharp rise has sparked both excitement and concern among traders and collectors alike. While the term “hot money stirring up the jade market” is often used in the media, the real story behind the “crazy stone” phenomenon is far more complex. As one seasoned dealer, Li Bo, explained, “It’s not as simple as just rising prices. The market is tight, and it’s becoming harder for us to make profits.” Li runs a jade shop in Beijing’s well-known North Third Ring Road art market, where many businesses specialize in jade. Recently, he's been struggling. “Customers think the price is high, so they expect us to make big profits. But actually, our margins are shrinking,” he said. “Sales are similar to before, but we’re not making as much money.” During a visit to his shop, the reporter observed a single customer examining a jade bracelet. Despite being satisfied with the piece, the buyer couldn’t agree on the price. “This bracelet is the same batch as the one I bought half a year ago. Why is the price so different now?” the customer asked, expressing frustration. Li confirmed that the two bracelets were indeed from the same batch and had similar costs. “I could have sold it for 50,000 yuan before, but now I’m hesitant to charge 100,000. It feels like the flour is more expensive than the bread,” he joked, highlighting the current imbalance between cost and demand. According to Li, the main factors driving up costs are the rising price of raw jade, processing expenses, and operational overheads. However, the most significant factor is the steep increase in the price of high-quality raw materials, especially top-grade stones. “Even unpolished pieces have gone up significantly,” he noted. Industry experts suggest that the current situation reflects a broader trend. Many small-scale dealers are struggling to keep up with the rising costs and are either closing down or shifting their focus to lower-end products. “The market is becoming more selective. Only the strongest players can survive,” said Wan Hao, founder of the Wan Ruixiang Jade Club. Wan also pointed out that while high-end jade has seen explosive growth, mid-range and low-quality jade haven’t followed suit. “Junk cargo isn’t moving at all. The market is clearly divided between top-tier and the rest,” she explained. From the seller’s side, the limited supply of high-quality jade from Myanmar plays a major role. The country is the only source of natural jadeite, and its mining is tightly controlled through government auctions. According to Yan, Secretary-General of the China Jewellery & Jade Industry Association, the price of raw jade has been climbing steadily since 2009, with a 30% annual increase in the first few years. This trend has created a ripple effect in the retail market, leading to a full-scale price increase across the board. “High-end varieties have seen the biggest gains, but even mid-range jade is being affected,” said Austrian Rock, a well-known jade expert. Myanmar’s jade resources are finite, and experts estimate that the current rate of extraction will last only another 10 to 20 years. Some of the most prized materials, such as the famous green glass stones from the Maw Sit Tsa mine, are already nearly depleted. Looking ahead, experts believe that the price of jadeite will continue to rise. “At least this year, there’s no doubt about it,” said Wan Hao. She advised investors to be cautious and focus on quality. “Top-tier jade is out of reach for most people, but there are still opportunities in mid-range pieces with strong craftsmanship.” In addition to traditional collectors, a growing number of investors are entering the market. “More people are buying jade for investment rather than for personal use,” said Wan. “In the past year or two, the number of investors has doubled.” However, some worry that the market may be overheating. “There are definitely hot funds coming in, but I don’t think it’s a bubble,” said Wan. “It’s more of a compensatory growth based on long-term value.” Despite the speculation, jade remains a unique asset. Unlike other collectibles, jade has intrinsic value due to its rarity, beauty, and cultural significance. “Its historical and artistic value makes it stand out from other investments,” said Austrian Rock. For those interested in jade, understanding the basics is essential. Key factors include the species (structure), water (transparency), and color. A high-quality jadeite with good transparency and vibrant color can appreciate significantly over time. In summary, the jadeite market is undergoing a transformation driven by rising costs, limited supply, and increased investor interest. While challenges remain, the long-term value of jadeite continues to attract attention from both collectors and investors.

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