Financial sector futures on March 26th, Shanghai crude oil futures were successfully listed on March 26, 2018. The financial sector futures channel will share the important information brought back to the scene and share it with everyone. At the same time, the futures channel specializes in more than 20 top futures companies and research institutes to give an exclusive comment on the first-day performance of crude oil futures.
On the first day of the domestic crude oil futures market, the daily market opened higher and lower, opening price of 440 yuan / barrel, the highest point of 447.1 yuan / barrel, the lowest point of 426.3 yuan / barrel, settlement price of 433.8 yuan / barrel, closing price of 429.9 yuan / The barrel, an increase of 3.34%. Trading hours in the day: 9:00-10:15, 10:30-11:30, 13:30-15:00, cumulative volume of 40,656 lots, 3,114 positions, turnover of 17.48 billion yuan, total purchases In 19938, the total sales volume was 20,718 lots, and the total number of transactions was 7,536.
On the first day of listing, all contracts unilaterally traded 21,168 lots, and the main contract 1809 sold 20,328 lots, accounting for 96%. The remaining transactions were distributed in 1810, 1811, 1812, 1901, 1903, 1906, 1909, 1912 and 2006 contracts; unilateral total positions For the 1779 hands, the main 1809 contract positions 1557 hands, accounting for 88%.
The main contract of 1809 was opened at 440 yuan/barrel, which was 5.8% higher than the listed benchmark price of 416 yuan/barrel. After the opening, the price once touched the intraday high of 447.1 yuan/barrel. Then the price gradually fell back, and the lowest touched 426.3 yuan/ In the end of the barrel, the price rose to 429.9 yuan / barrel, the highest and lowest price difference reached 20.8 yuan / barrel, the fluctuation range. As of 16:00, the latest monthly contracts for overseas WTI, Brent and Oman crude oils were US$70.03/barrel, US$65.38/barrel and US$67.03/barrel, respectively, converted to 440.8 yuan/barrel according to the instant exchange rate of 6.3 yuan/dollar. 411.9 yuan / barrel and 422.3 yuan / barrel.
[Analysis of the first day of crude oil futures] Galaxy Futures: Night trading is expected to rebound shortly during the day
Review expert: Galaxy Futures Researcher Qi Qi
According to the trading characteristics of international crude oil futures, the lightness of the intraday trading in Guinea is a consistent style. The trading activity is mainly based on the European and American trading hours. The performance is that the trading volume and market activity are beginning to increase in the European and American trading hours. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will follow the international two major crude oil futures markets in the early stage, and the night market is more active than the Japanese market. (Night trading hours: 21:00 - 02:30 the next day)
Intraday strategy, from the perspective of speculation, comparing the trend of internal and external trading, the first day of SC listing, mainly to follow the trend of crude oil in the outer disk, according to the benchmark price announced by the energy center, there is a trend of high opening and low, the Japanese market along the The time-sharing average price line fluctuated and fell back. According to the US crude oil WTI 05 contract, the technical surface operated near the former high pressure level of 66 US dollars, and did not form an effective breakthrough, and the 4-hour level, K line formed a high reversal pattern, MACD The high position divergence, the short-term correction trend is obvious, the day recommended to rebound short-selling, below the focus on the support near 65 dollars, the top concerned about the pressure near 66.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] CITIC Futures: initial anchoring of the external market, concerned about international oil prices
Review expert: CITIC Futures crude oil researcher Gui Chenxi
On the first day of the crude oil futures market, the overall market performance was stable. Price anchoring is more precise and market pricing is relatively rational. Unilateral price pricing is slightly lower than direct benchmarking through DME Oman, or indirect bidding price through ICE Brent + EFS; higher than benchmark price through Basrah Light spot. Oman can achieve two-way delivery of internal and external disk arbitrage through DME, Basrah Light is the cheapest deliverable oil, the market or still explore the best pricing model between the two.
At the beginning of the trading session, trading was more active, and the market concentrated trading in recent months. From the perspective of volume, the first day trading volume was 42,000 lots, and the turnover was about 18 billion. The average turnover of new products in the inner market was 8.1 billion, and the first day of crude oil futures transactions was in the forefront. Liquidity is mainly concentrated in the main contract in recent months, and the far-end transactions are relatively light. To form a complete curve structure, perhaps the far-month transaction continues to improve.
From the perspective of the participants, the main focus is on industrial investors, and the recognition of the physical industry is relatively high. State-owned oil companies such as Lianyou, Lianhua, Haiyou and Sinochem, and private oil companies such as HSBC and Huataixing, and overseas traders such as Trafigura, Glencore, Mercuria and Freepoint all participate in collective bidding transactions. As a professional brokerage service provider in the market, CITIC Futures actively participates in transactions; several overseas entities and two overseas intermediaries participate in collective bidding and trading through CITIC Futures seats.
On the whole, crude oil futures may be in a stable transition at the beginning of the market, and the pricing model will gradually mature. After the price trend is relatively stable, it will attract more investors to enter the market. In the early stage, it is mainly based on anchoring the outer disk, and the market pays attention to the international oil price.
[Analysis of the first day of crude oil futures] Guotai Junan: The active liquidity of trading will attract more investors
Review Expert: Wang Xiao, Research Director of Guotai Junan Futures Crude Oil Futures
From the perspective of intraday trading, INE crude oil futures trading is very active and liquidity is good. In the first day of non-European and American mainstream trading hours, we can form such a good trading situation. We think there are three reasons: First, this is the embodiment of the former exchange and the various departments of the country on the crude oil futures support policy; secondly, from the first batch of trading customers From the above point of view, large domestic and foreign large oil and chemical companies and large traders have participated, indicating that INE crude oil futures market has been recognized by the global crude oil market to a certain extent; finally, China is the world's largest economy and the largest crude oil demand country. One of them, the huge market makes INE crude oil futures have a very good market base. The preparation for nearly a decade also makes the market no stranger to crude oil futures, and participation is naturally high enough.
From the perspective of price trends, the price of INE crude oil is very close to the price of delivery oil. The price model previously adopted by the market through risk-free arbitrage theory has proved effective. The price formed by the Chinese crude oil futures market includes the price trend is true and effective. To a certain extent, it has been able to reflect the changes in the supply and demand of our domestic crude oil. And this change is not out of touch, this is a fair price that is highly linked to the international market. From the perspective of many different types of participants, the composition of this price is relatively balanced, and the market has a high degree of acceptance.
We believe that the first day trading of INE crude oil futures is good. I believe that in the future, it will attract more different types of participants to participate in the trading of INE crude oil futures, which will also promote better liquidity and more influential INE prices. This benign cycle will also help INE crude oil futures to better play the role and role of futures.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Xinhu Futures: trading positions are significantly lower than other varieties tomorrow is worth looking forward to
Commentator: Yan Lili, researcher of crude oil asphalt in Xinhu Futures
Crude oil futures are officially listed for trading today. As expected, the “open door†was realized. The pre-market auction stage of the main contract SC1809 increased by 5.8% from the benchmark price of 416 yuan/barrel to 440 yuan/barrel. The benchmark for the first day trading was 10%. There are 10 major players involved in the auction, including three-bucket oil trading companies, large overseas traders, such as Trafigura, Glencore, which is the first to settle in Xinhu Futures, domestic traders, and the right to purchase and use crude oil. One of the refining companies - HSBC Petrochemical.
After the high opening, it continued to rise slightly for a short period of time, and then there was a tendency of shocks and downwards, and there was a slight increase in the late trading. As of 15:00 on March 26, SC1809 closed at 429.9 yuan / barrel, an increase of about 3.34%; turnover of 40,656 hands, holdings of 3,114 hands. From the price trend, it basically meets our previous comment "SC1809, finally waiting for you". Since the domestic crude oil futures are based on the Middle East medium crude oil, the SC1809 contract corresponds to the DME Oman crude oil 1807 contract, announced at the Shanghai International Energy Center. After the benchmark price, there was a sharp increase in the external disk. The price difference between the two was about 20 yuan/barrel. From the data of volume and position, it may be significantly lower than the first-day listing of other varieties. This is mainly due to crude oil. Futures is a large international product compared to other varieties. It is essential to operate wind control steadily. For this reason, the 5% deposits announced by various futures companies at the Shanghai International Energy Center have been raised by a certain margin.
The future of crude oil futures is worth our expectation.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] South China Futures: the main contract transaction active private placement institutions need to wait for the price and price combination
Review Expert: Zhao Xiaoyu, Manager of Nanhua Futures Fund Business Unit
The closing price of the crude oil futures support contract rose 3.34% on the first day of listing, achieving a good start.
1. Today, the rise of crude oil, the author believes that the benchmark price of crude oil contracts is generally lower than the expectations of institutional customers. The rise of today's contracts quickly fills the gap between domestic and foreign crude oil futures, reflecting the participating institutions. Maturity
2. Some people have commented that today's positions are far below the volume. The market is highly speculative. The author believes that this is in line with the characteristics of new varieties. It is important for institutions to maintain liquidity even for crude oil industry customers. The point of consideration, so the increase in the ratio of positions to volume requires time to accumulate.
3. The South China Funds Department is mainly engaged in domestic investment institutions, especially private equity institutions. From the perspective of the author's exposure to private equity institutions, investors who participate in derivatives trading are actively opening crude oil trading codes, but they still have to wait for real participation. opportunity. Specifically, private equity institutions that subjectively trade will refer to the price of international crude oil or test a small amount of crude oil futures based on the occurrence of some events affecting the price of crude oil. For private equity firms engaged in quantitative transactions, they need to wait for the richness of the transaction data sample and the firm test of small-scale funds. It may take half a year to actually participate.
4. As a fund business unit, we are more concerned about the impact of crude oil futures listing on private equity funds. As a listing of large-scale crude oil futures, it will greatly enrich the capacity of CTA strategy, while CTA strategy generally shows low compared with other strategies. Relevance, making the CTA fund play an indispensable role in asset allocation, so the listing of crude oil futures has greatly enriched the tools of current domestic market asset allocation!
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Industrial Futures: Relative valuation is low, China's crude oil futures can test more
Review expert: Jia Shuchang, deputy chief of the Quantitative Research Division of Industrial Futures Investment Advisory Department
From the current fundamentals, although the number of US rigs announced on the weekend has risen again, last week's US oil inventories fell as expected, and the US unilaterally torn the risk of Iran's nuclear agreement in May sharply increased the geopolitical risk premium back to the oil market. The OPEC cut production execution rate hit a new high and its extended production cuts to the expected increase at the end of 2019, the oil market bullish sentiment renewed, and this week the US refinery overhaul is nearing completion, which is expected to make US oil stocks fall again, the dollar weak or maintain will help this week. International oil prices will rise to the next level; from the relative valuation and fundamental drivers, the SC1809 contract should have a long-term thinking in the near future.
From the perspective of the term structure of international oil prices, both BRENT and WTI show the near-high and low reverse structure of Backwardation. There are factors that the US continues to increase production expectations for short-term oil prices, and OPEC promotes destocking to reduce excess. This structure is difficult to reverse in the short term.
The benchmark price of China's crude oil futures for SC1809-SC1903 is 416 yuan/barrel. On the first day of listing, it is expected to follow the outer disk to form a near-high and low reverse structure. This means that the first is to buy near-far forward arbitrage. The demand season is coming, the US oil stocks are de-converted, and the US crude oil output is more stable in the context of increasing production. Second, crude oil is highly positively correlated with inflation, and is highly negatively correlated with the US dollar. In addition to the crude oil bulls, it can increase profits in the context of rising inflation. In addition, it can also form a good hedge against the already held US dollars. From the perspective of asset allocation, the reverse structure will provide rollover benefits.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] CCB futures: demand is generally good, the market outlook is up
Review expert: Jianxin Futures Researcher Li Jie
Shanghai crude oil futures 1809 contract rose to 440 yuan / barrel after the opening today, then fell back and oscillated within a narrow range around 430 yuan / barrel until the close. The main contract turnover exceeded 17 billion yuan, and the turnover of crude oil products exceeded 18 billion yuan. The market enthusiasm was high.
The first day trend is in line with our expectation. The price anchoring route between Shanghai crude oil futures and Dubai Exchange Oman crude oil is the most direct. Considering the schedule, delivery, shipping, shipping and the time and cost of registering warehouse receipts, Shanghai 1809 contract The premium of Oman's 1807 contract should be kept at 20 yuan / barrel. Today's main contract trend is stable overall, and the price quickly returns to a reasonable range after the opening. The spread of the adjacent monthly contract is about $0.5/barrel, which is also consistent with Oman. It shows that investors involved in crude oil futures are more rational, which is conducive to the formation of a more fair and effective price discovery mechanism.
Shanghai crude oil futures prices are expected to follow international oil prices in the short term. We are optimistic about the global market rebalancing in the 2-3 quarter and the growth of China's demand. According to the balance sheets of EIA, IEA and OPEC, the overall market is stronger in the second quarter of this year, and the OPEC production reduction agreement promotes the global balance of supply and demand. The crude oil market is expected to reach a rebalancing in the third quarter. Domestically, China's crude oil demand continues to grow. Since the liberalization of China's crude oil rights, the operating rate of Shandong's refining has risen rapidly. In 2018, the import allowance for non-state-owned oil in crude oil increased by 62.6% year-on-year, and the use of imported crude oil was more free. In addition to the refinery, a large amount of imported crude oil is used to supplement the strategic reserve. Demand is generally improving, and Shanghai crude oil futures are expected to rise.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Xingzheng Futures: insufficient volatility, cross-species arbitrage space is not big
Review expert: Lin Hui, head of the chemical group of Xingzheng Futures Research Institute
In terms of transaction size, the closing turnover was 17.6 billion, and the position was 3,114 lots. Compared with the first day of the IPO, the turnover of 70 billion was less, and it was concentrated on the 1809 contract, with 1810 volatility deviation. Mainly due to the limited participation of the participants, on the one hand, there are reasons for the greater value of the contract. On the one hand, there are also threshold restrictions. Participating in multiple institutions, including Glencore and other overseas institutions, and fewer retail investors.
On the basis of this participant, the forward curve of unilateral price and intertemporal price difference is more rational. The oil unilateral is at 69.55 USD/barrel, the Budi spread is at 3.29 USD/barrel, and the oil spread is at a price difference of 0.6. USD/barrel, Shanghai crude oil is near 420 yuan/ton, and near-month is around 3.6 yuan/ton.
However, due to the low participation of the subject in the distant month, the volatility is insufficient, the space for intertemporal arbitrageurs is limited, and the space for cross-species arbitrageurs is not large. If the threshold is moderately released in the later period, it will help to improve the arbitrageurs. Participation. In addition, industrial institutions have not fully entered the futures market, which is related to the lack of liquidity of the disk and the lack of domestic spot trading. However, with the increase of the Zhejiang Free Trade Trading Co., the future spot trade is expected to be active and the liquidity of the disk will increase. More aggressive involvement in the crude oil market, crude oil futures prices are also more on a spot basis.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Haitong Futures: the first half of the year to maintain the rise in the second half of the year
Review expert: Xue Zhenhua, researcher of Haitong Futures crude oil
The first day of the Chinese crude oil futures market exceeded expectations. Crude oil prices opened higher and lower. After the rapid expansion in the morning, the volume of the crude oil contracted immediately. However, from the 1809 contract bid-ask spread, most of the time maintained a beating unit, indicating that investors are experienced and calm. The contract from 1809 to 1903 was generally in a declining state, in line with the international crude oil trading behavior.
Driven by the arbitrage trading, the price curve successfully turned into a perfect discount structure, in line with the design expectations of the previous period, so the competition in the intraday is not a long-term confrontation, but the killing of the near-month and far-month contracts. Among them, the 1812 contract changed in the intraday trading, twisting the price of the previous segment, causing the arbitrage window to open, but with the behavior of intertemporal trading, the price of the 1812 contract returned to normal. The most praiseworthy is the spread between the 1809 and 1810 contracts, which basically meets the Brent price difference. Overall, the 1809 and 1810 prices are highly informative.
Late outlook. Crude oil basically maintained its upward trend in the first half of the year. The Sino-US trade war will interfere with the import price of US steel, increase the operating costs of oil service enterprises, and stack the expectations of the Fed to raise interest rates. The corporate financing burden will become heavier, although the current oil price is spring, but Limited to the operating costs of oil service companies, US crude oil production will not put pressure on crude oil in the short term. In the Middle East, OPEC's production reduction efforts will remain above 100%, and the production reduction plan may be postponed to 2019. Therefore, the supply of crude oil is Lido crude oil. However, the situation in the second half of the year has become confusing. The United States is likely to increase economic stimulus before the mid-term elections, expand crude oil mining, and continue to narrow the trade deficit. If OPEC production cannot be postponed, then crude oil prices will fall by a high probability.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Huaxin Futures: Cross-species arbitrage space is not open, the expected night plate will be gapped
Review Expert: Liu Minglei, Director of Huaxin Futures Energy Division
Shanghai crude oil futures were successfully listed on March 26, 2018.
In addition to the initial risk-free selling of Oman in the opening of the Shanghai crude oil main contract, the price is basically between Brent and Oman. The traders are still looking for the anchoring path of crude oil futures price, and the cross-market arbitrage opportunities are limited. . From the perspective of the monthly spread, Shanghai crude oil futures showed a near-high and low structure. The closing price difference between 1809 and 1810, 1811, 1812 and 1903 was -3.5 yuan/barrel, -7.8 yuan/barrel, -8.7 yuan/barrel and -14.9 yuan/ The barrel is roughly consistent with the forward curve of overseas crude oil futures. The 1806 and 1812 contract days of the asphalt showed a rising trend. The closing price and the main price difference of Shanghai crude oil 1809 were 311 yuan/barrel and 92 yuan/barrel respectively. The cross-species arbitrage space has not been opened yet.
Overall, the first day of trading and positions of Shanghai crude oil futures were in line with expectations, and the price trend was more rational. As Platts announced the spot price of deliverable oil before the night, it is expected that Shanghai crude oil prices will show a certain extent at the opening of the night. The gap, the overall trend will continue to follow Brent and Oman changes.
[Analysis of the first day of crude oil futures] SDIC Anxin: The gap between the international market and the international market is relatively high
Commentators: SDIC Shun Cheng Gold Futures Institute
Horizontal and vertical comparisons are made with gold and thermal coal. The first trading day of thermal coal futures totaled 339,000 contracts, and the total transaction amount was roughly 36 billion yuan. Domestic gold futures are in line with domestic crude oil futures trading hours. Today, Shanghai gold futures contracts totaled 75,000 contracts during the day, and the total transaction amount was roughly 20.8 billion yuan. It can be seen that the trading volume of crude oil and gold is similar, but the trading activity is lower than that of thermal coal at the beginning of the market. Compared with the volume of the international crude oil futures market, there is still a big gap. Although it is a new-listed product, and the daytime is a light period for international crude oil futures trading, the overall market trading activity needs to be improved.
From the perspective of the distribution of investors participating in the auction, the upstream and downstream industry chains are fully covered, including the upstream oil and gas companies, domestic import agents, large international traders, and downstream refineries. At the same time, there are both state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign companies. It can be seen that INE crude oil futures have attracted much attention from the market. International large-scale traders and investment institutions, Glencore, can grab the first order, indicating that overseas investment institutions and industrial customers are very concerned about China's crude oil futures. It also shows that overseas participation in China's crude oil futures is completely feasible. The so-called international varieties are not just empty. number. Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that crude oil futures is a product innovation and an open measure. In terms of opening up, the CSRC will have some new measures. Just like oil futures, it is to make international pricing benchmarks more Reflecting China's supply and demand situation, it is conducive to the development of China's economy.
[Analysis of crude oil futures] Hongye Futures: China's crude oil futures or challenges to the oil dollar system
Review agency: Hongye Futures Research Institute
Recently, Saudi Energy Minister Falih said that OPEC members need to continue to cooperate with Russia and other non-OPEC oil producers until 2019 to reduce global oil inventories. In addition, relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran continued to be tense, and the weakening of the US dollar index supported the rise in crude oil prices. As the delivery oil designed by Shanghai crude oil futures contract is mainly based on Middle East sulfur crude oil such as Oman crude oil, according to the DME Oman crude oil futures price, the domestic crude oil futures closing price is at a reasonable level today, there is no obvious overestimation or underestimation.
Since the decoupling of the dollar from gold, the US government began to use international oil trade as a breakthrough to find solutions. In 1974, the United States reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, and the United States agreed to provide arms and equipment to Saudi Arabia on the condition that the US dollar was the sole pricing currency for oil trading. Since Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), other member states have also adopted the US dollar for oil trading, and the US dollar is closely linked to oil. Any country that wants to trade in oil must have sufficient US dollar reserves. Oil will replace gold to a certain extent and become a credit endorsement of the US dollar, helping to continue to ensure the core position of the US dollar in the international monetary system.
The listing of Chinese crude oil futures poses a challenge to the oil dollar system. Among the majority of crude oil exported by the United States, the final destination is locked in the Asian market, such as Japan, China and Singapore. The launch of China's crude oil futures poses certain challenges to the US energy policy and the oil dollar system.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Zhonghui Futures: The ratio deviates significantly from the exchange rate level to focus on arbitrage opportunities
Review expert: Zhao Lifeng, researcher of Zhonghui Futures Crude Oil
For the first time, the unilateral price is still relatively small due to the participation of the participants. However, as the transaction progressed, the spread began to stabilize. The overall inter-contract structure is consistent with WTI and BRENT crude oil in the near-end premium. After a day of trading, the 09-10 contract spread is about 3 yuan, and the 10-12 contract spread is about 6 yuan. According to the domestic post-month, it can be found that regardless of domestic unilateral pricing, but after the one-day transaction for intertemporal pricing has returned to a certain rationality. As an investor, you can give certain attention to the spread and find arbitrage opportunities.
For cross-market arbitrage we still need to consider two issues:
1. Compared with BERNT crude oil, our domestic benchmark oil quality is slightly worse. In theory, the price of Oman crude oil should be close to the level of BRENT premium of about US$3/barrel.
2. At the same time, we must also realize that our domestic crude oil represents the sales price, and we need to consider additional transportation and other related costs, so the domestic price is higher than that of Oman crude oil.
After comprehensive measurement, our domestic prices should be closer to BRENT crude oil futures after exchange rate conversion. When the ratio deviates significantly from the exchange rate, you may wish to focus on arbitrage opportunities.
[Analysis of the first day of crude oil futures] Shenyin Wanguo: The crude oil price in the market is weak and the bearish power is relatively strong
Commentators: Crude oil futures analyst Dong and SW
With the participation of more institutional investors, refining companies and investors, crude oil futures will gradually become active. Because from the perspective of commodity properties, crude oil, as an important commodity commodity, has a large number of use enterprises and has a keen responsiveness to macroeconomics. And, from the data from 2009 to the present, Brent and WTI have volatility of 35% and 31%, respectively. The revolving rate of rebar is only 29%. This is quite attractive to investors.
With the participation of more institutional investors, refining companies and investors, crude oil futures will gradually become active. Because from the perspective of commodity properties, crude oil, as an important commodity commodity, has a large number of use enterprises and has a keen responsiveness to macroeconomics. And, from the data from 2009 to the present, Brent and WTI have volatility of 35% and 31%, respectively. The revolving rate of rebar is only 29%. This is quite attractive to investors.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] a German futures: set auction 413 domestic and foreign stocks up and down synchronization
Review agency: Yide Futures Research Institute
From the day's operation, SC crude oil futures launched a total of 20 contracts on the first day of the listing. A total of 42,336 contracts were sold on that day, with 3,558 positions held. The main contract 1809 sold 40,656 contracts, holding 3,114 positions, closing price of 429.9 yuan / barrel or 68.14 US dollars / barrel, up 13.9 yuan / barrel or 2.2 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 3.34%. Except for the 1903 contract, all other contracts rose, and the overall trading situation was stable.
From the perspective of investor participation, the SC crude oil period is China's first international futures product. A total of 413 customers participated in the auction on the first day of listing, including domestic and foreign institutions such as oil companies, traders and overseas intermediaries. From the perspective of internal and external disk correlation, the SC crude oil futures and the WTI and Brent futures were up and down simultaneously, and the SC1809-Oman1807 price difference was 1.79 US dollars/barrel, which was within a reasonable range.
In addition, SC crude oil futures also form a long-term curve structure of Backwadation with reference to the outer disk. SC crude oil futures trading was stable on the first day, and the market actively participated in the high-speed linkage with the foreign crude oil futures. This also unexpectedly represented the Shanghai price and the Chinese voice of SC crude oil futures officially on the stage of the international market.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Shanghai mid-term: foreign investors enthusiastically high main contract turnover 17.64 billion
Review expert: He Lihong, crude oil analyst of Shanghai Interim Futures Research Institute
In the morning trading session, 32,000 contracts were sold and the turnover was 13.9 billion yuan. The crude oil futures contract SC1809 totaled 40,700 lots and the turnover was 17.64 billion yuan. The market participation was enthusiastic, especially the participation of foreign investors, which was in line with the internationalization of China's crude oil futures.
Jiang Yang, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out that China, as the world's largest crude oil importer and the second largest crude oil consumer, launched crude oil futures mainly based on the needs of the country's real economy and further reform and opening up. Therefore, the listing of China's crude oil futures today will become a powerful financial tool for the entity, providing value for money and petrochemicals and related enterprises, as well as injecting fresh blood into the futures spot market of the petrochemical industry chain, and bringing more benefits to the Chinese financial market. More opportunities and challenges.
[Analysis of the first day of crude oil futures] Donghai Futures: 10 minutes of trading volume over 10,000 hands can choose to enter the market to do more dips
Review expert: Li Yuying, an analyst at Donghai Futures Research Institute
Crude oil futures ushered in a "open door" on the first day. Similar to the fluctuation of external disk prices such as Brent, it also reflects that market participants tend to be rational.
In terms of cross-month and cross-market arbitrage, considering that the current warehousing price is too high, it may take some time for market verification, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near future. For cross-month arbitrage, we need to consider the current high storage costs. According to one month's conversion, the storage fee of a barrel of oil is about 6 yuan, which is higher than the current freight rate, so it also creates certain difficulties for determining the current monthly difference. However, similar to the external disk, the price structure of the near high and low will not change, and the arbitrage between SC1809-SC1810 or SC1809-SC1812 can be concerned in the future.
It can be seen from today's transaction that the enthusiasm of domestic and foreign market participants is still very high, with a turnover of more than 10,000 hands in ten minutes. We also firmly believe that future crude oil futures will attract more investors and funds and create more good investment opportunities!
[Analysis of the first day of crude oil futures] Zhongcai Futures: The total value of the transaction is over 18 billion
Review expert: Shen Jun, Vice President of Zhongcai Futures
The first day of the listing of China's crude oil futures was in good condition with unlimited potential. With the increase of domestic and foreign participants and the gradual enlargement of trading volume in the future, INE crude oil is expected to form a “three-legged†trend with Brent and WTI, and mutually promote a win-win situation. In turn, it will form a benchmark price that reflects the supply and demand relationship between the oil market in China and even the Asia-Pacific region. While increasing the right to speak of China's crude oil, it will provide an effective tool for domestic and foreign related enterprises to hedge and avoid price risks, and also help to further promote RMB international. Turn.
In China's financial opening up, crude oil futures will issue a "Chinese voice" in its own unique way, resulting in "China influence". China will find the real status of the RMB and the Chinese economy in the market competition.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] China Power Investment Futures Futures: After the price valuation is high, the market has a high probability of callback
Review expert: Liu Zhenhai, Dean of China Power Investment Futures Futures Research Institute
From the perspective of investors participating in the transaction, the domestic and foreign institutional investors and domestic and foreign oil companies, the opportunistic retail investors accounted for a relatively small number, small and medium-sized retail investors only a small amount of participation, still in the observation period. In the later period, the future trend of crude oil futures is clear, and there will be a large number of speculative customers involved. In general, the breadth and depth of the transaction will be satisfactory on the first day. Whether this active trading situation can continue to develop, the follow-up performance remains to be seen.
But the most noteworthy is that Shanghai crude oil futures are quoted in RMB, with today's daily closing price of 429.9 yuan / barrel, calculated by today's RMB against the US dollar in the middle of the price of 631.93, equivalent to US dollars equivalent to 68.13 US dollars / barrel, and today BRENT light The price of low-sulfur crude oil is around $69.6/barrel, and the price of WTI light sweet crude oil is around $65.6/barrel. The price difference with the BRENT premium is only $1.5/barrel, which is $4.5/barrel over WTI. The Shanghai crude oil futures contract is a medium-sized sulfur-containing crude oil, which should be worse than BRENT and WTI in terms of quality and sulfur content. From the point of view of spot trade, the transaction price should be lower than the above two crude oil futures prices. After deducting the pricing factor, the price of Shanghai crude oil futures is overvalued. This overvalued price should be driven by cross-market arbitrage funds. Will be eliminated.
The way to eliminate, either BRENT and WTI rose rapidly, rose to a reasonable quality premium range, or the Shanghai crude oil futures contract fell rapidly, bridging the overvalued premium. However, from the current price of international crude oil, both BRENT and WTI are close to the previous high point. From the current supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil and sensitive macroeconomic factors, the resistance to overshoot continues to increase. BRENT and WTI are more likely to oscillate near the high point. Therefore, the probability of a downturn in the Shanghai crude oil futures to make up the premium is greater.
[Analysis of the first day of crude oil futures] Jinrui Futures: The first day of the commodity giant's stable price discovery is beginning to emerge
Review agency: Jinrui Futures Research Institute
It is expected that after the market adjustment in the initial stage of the market, the fluctuation of SC will be more unified with the international oil price, and will be revised continuously to exert its price discovery function. The current crude oil market is in the midst of seasonally stronger demand. The crude oil destocking in the second quarter will support oil prices. In addition, the Saudi energy minister last weekend discussed the 2019 limit production agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC. Concerns about loose production, so the overall oil price will continue to be strong.
The tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has increased the possibility of a meeting at the restricted production meeting. The market is still worried about the reduction in production scale in the second half of the year. In addition, after the WTI price returns to above $65/barrel, the further rise will face the risk of triggering a new round of shale oil production promotion, and the upward assistance will be significantly increased. Therefore, for the crude oil market, we believe that under the support of seasonally strong destocking, oil prices remain strong, and the hidden concerns from limited production and shale oil will still limit the price of the distant moon, and the back structure has further solid foundation, especially For the SC crude oil contract, the near-distance monthly spread still has room for repair, or the price is near-strong and weak.
For future trends, investors need to pay attention to the expected trend of production restrictions, changes in shale oil production activities, and changes in the exchange rate of the RMB dollar caused by the Trump trade war.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] COFCO futures: trading logic to the Middle East pricing short-term follow the external trend
Review agency: COFCO Futures Research Institute
On the first day of the listing of INE crude oil futures, the 1809 contract opened at 440 yuan/barrel, closing at 429.9 yuan/barrel. At present, OMAN crude oil July contract price is about 66 US dollars, according to the exchange rate of 6.31 plus 15 yuan of transportation and miscellaneous fees, and SC1809 contract price basically match. It can be seen that the current trading logic in the domestic market is indeed based on Middle East oil, which is in line with market expectations.
In terms of price difference, INE crude oil exhibits a near-strength and far-wet long-term structure, and the price difference between the months is basically consistent with that of the outer disk crude oil. Overall, we believe that the price characteristics on the first day of listing are relatively reasonable. It is expected that the price difference between the external and crude oil will be gradually formed in the near future, and the short-term trend will be followed by the trend of the external market.
[Analysis of crude oil futures on the first day] Huatai Futures: slightly flat trading positions help market liquidity
Review expert: Zhang Huiyao, deputy general manager of Huatai Futures Crude Oil Futures Department
The position on the first day of trading was slightly flat. Traders have a high degree of participation and have certain support for market liquidity. It is expected that the positions in the market will gradually enlarge and the transactions will become increasingly active.
Related topics: "China Edition" crude oil futures listed on March 26
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