In the second half of the year, the company still has a rising trend

On August 22, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued a press release on its website saying that China’s foreign trade development is facing multiple pressures such as weak external demand and rising costs. The author chats with the boss of the company and the owner of the dealer. When talking about the market situation this year, the most heard word is the word “up”. Now that it has entered the second half of the year, everyone is concerned that: Will costs continue to rise?

The author is not a "fortune teller" and cannot predict the future, but some clues can be used to judge the general trend of the industry: The rising cost involves three main factors: 1) raw materials; 2) labor; 3) *** exchange rate. First of all, one of the reasons for the price increase of raw materials is the tight supply of raw hides; second, the price of imported hides continues to rise; and third, the rise in oil prices has also led to prices of PU, chemical raw materials and shoe materials rising. The news from Chengdu Customs in July was that the price of a raw pigskin rose from 80-90 yuan from 40-50 yuan last year to breaking the one hundred yuan mark. The quality of sheep skin in Haining, Zhejiang Province has risen from 24 yuan per foot to 29-30 yuan per foot from a year ago. The price of suede per foot has soared from 28 yuan to 52 yuan per foot, which has almost doubled and the price of hides has also increased. 50%. The United States is the third country in the world in terms of raw hide production. This year, the price of leather in the United States has risen to the highest level in the past decade. Last year, the increase was 24%, which rose to 82 US dollars. The United States Raw Leather and Leather Association President Redington said: "With the US leather supply began to shrink and consumer demand for leather products continues to recover, this year leather prices may further increase." And some rare leather such as crocodile skin is expected Its price will rise sharply by about 25%.

The rise in raw material prices stems from the recovery of high-end consumption in Europe and the United States and the growing Asian middle class pushing up the prices of leather goods and other rare leather goods. Sustained tensions between supply and demand may lead to continued rise in raw material prices in the second half of 2011.

Secondly, from the perspective of labor costs, that is, wages, the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan proposed that the income growth of urban and rural residents should reach more than 7%, which is in sync with economic development. In April of this year, Vice Minister of Human Resources and Ministry of Finance Yang Zhiming stated: "We must strive to achieve an average annual increase of over 13% in the minimum wage standard, increase wages by 15%, and double wage growth during the 12th five-year period." China Labor Su Hainan, president of the Institute’s Salary Special Committee, said: “At present, China’s minimum wage standard is still low, and there is room for upward adjustment.” It can be seen that for a long time to come, the country will use “visible hands” in policy. At the level to promote the rise of workers' wage income. Judging from past experience, near the Spring Festival, factory workers often set foot on their way back to their hometowns. In particular, some employees in the 80s and 90s who do not care about money will have a wave of “resignations”, and some companies can only Salary increase.

Finally, as the US dollar continued to weaken in the international market, the central parity of the *** against the US dollar continued to hit a new high since the exchange rate reform, industry analysts, the recent overseas market expectations of appreciation of the *** have weakened, despite the second half *** may continue to appreciate, but the increase may have slowed compared to the first half. "Although *** will appreciate as a whole this year, according to our calculations, the pace of exchange rate increases will slow down, and the appreciation is nearing completion. The two-way volatility may increase next year," said Liu Dongliang, an analyst at China Merchants Bank. . However, on August 16, the middle price of *** against the US dollar reached a new high of 6.3925. Some experts believe that in view of the Fed’s continued monetary easing policy, the *** will face a faster appreciation in the second half of the year.

Through the above simple analysis, the author predicts that the various types of costs in the second half of this year will still have room to rise. Enterprises and dealers should be fully prepared to do this, do a good job in risk-avoidance measures, increase income, reduce expenditure, and plan ahead, save the cost.