China's August export data was worse than expected, but continued to pick up momentum, mainly due to the slow recovery of foreign demand. Due to the slow trend of external demand, China's exports are expected to grow slowly, and the year-on-year decline is expected to narrow.
According to data released by China Customs on September 11, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in the month of August was 191.7 billion US dollars, of which the export value was 103.7 billion US dollars. The export value was stable at more than 100 billion US dollars for two consecutive months; the import was 88 billion US dollars. After seasonal adjustment, the year-on-year growth rate remained unchanged in August, with imports, exports and imports increasing by 2.3%, 3.4% and 1% respectively.
Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, pointed out that China's imports in August were -17.0% year-on-year, and exports were -23.4% year-on-year. The seasonally adjusted growth rate was slower. Among them, exports continued to rebound. In August, representative countries and regions reported positive data. The US and European prices fell, and the recovery represented by the US housing market has been launched. The European countries' PMI and UK retail sales in July were higher than market expectations. According to the exporting countries, the year-on-year decline in exports to the United States and Taiwan has been stable, and exports to France have rebounded rapidly. This indicates that external demand for consumer products is gradually recovering, and manufacturing in Taiwan and Malaysia is also recovering. According to the product, the export of textiles, garment manufacturing and other industries did not see a significant improvement before July. When the overall export in August was lower than expected, it is expected that these industries will not exceed the expected growth before Christmas.
Chen Yong, senior analyst of the macro economy of United Securities, pointed out that the export data in August was significantly worse than expected. This is mainly due to the slow recovery of foreign demand. It is expected that the future exports will grow slowly in the future, and the year-on-year decline is expected to narrow. Because external demand has a slow trend toward good. Guo Rong Fund Investment Director Yu Rongquan said that exports were still very poor in August, but will gradually improve at the end of the year, because overseas will start to replenish stocks.
Xing Weiwei, a macroeconomic analyst at CIC Securities, said that the overseas economy is more optimistic, and the US economy has also turned positive in the ring. It is expected that the export growth rate will turn positive at the end of the year. Haitong Securities Senior (6) (0) comments on this article other comments to initiate topics related information financial forum please enter the verification code
(0) Analyst Li Mingliang pointed out that the import data is in line with expectations, but the export data is slightly worse than expected, mainly due to weak external demand. The export growth rate in the first half of 2010 is expected to be between 0 and 5%. From the policy point of view, the current policy of export support is basically used up, and the exchange rate has been very stable, so the future policy space is small.
In addition, the August import data in August is still in the historical high-speed range. Dong Xianan pointed out that the seasonally adjusted imports of industrial products began to decline slightly after the rapid recovery from December 2008 to May 2009, and are still in the historical high-speed range. The import index of PMI in CFLP manufacturing industry was stable. After the adjustment in August, the import-to-annual import ratio was 22.5%. It is expected that the future narrowing of imports will not slow down.
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