Overall view: Last week, the General Administration of Customs announced the export data for May, and the monthly export volume of textiles and clothing increased by 8.70% year-on-year, which is in line with our judgment on the "sustained weak recovery" of exports.
Logic analysis of industrial investment We expect that the production, export, domestic sales, investment, profit, and scale of the textile and apparel industry will continue to grow in the second half of the year, and the efficiency of the industry will increase. It is expected that the growth rate of exports will not exceed the level of the same period of last year, and the growth rate of domestic sales will slow down. Will continue.
At the textile sub-sector level, it is expected that the raw material market price will be weak, the production and sales of leading enterprises will grow steadily, and the quality and efficiency of operations will be basically stable. In the short-to-medium term, the leading enterprises of cotton textiles will have the value of configuration investment; in the medium and long term, with the cotton policy With the adjustment, the cotton textile industry is expected to usher in favorable opportunities and leading enterprises will benefit.
At the apparel sub-sector level, in the context of consumer segmentation, narrowing of consumer groups, and demand fragmentation, the industry's traditional channels, marketing, and production methods all face many challenges. The industry's in-depth transformation is the trend of the times and the differentiation of individual stocks will become more apparent. In addition, when the industry's future development path is not clear, emerging companies will rise rapidly.
The investment opportunities worth noting in the second half of 2014 include the policies involving the cotton spinning industry and the apparent differentiation of apparel stocks.
Cotton involvement policy: Xinjiang's cotton target price subsidy trial started, and reserve cotton sales made adjustments. Anhui Province took the lead in incorporating lint and veil into the scope of the agricultural product value-added tax (VAT) input tax deducting pilot scope. Future policies involving the cotton spinning industry are expected to gradually clear up. Changes in raw material market prices after the listing of new cotton in September.
The differentiation trend will become even more pronounced: The domestic market as a whole has not seen a significant improvement, but it shows a structural differentiation trend: (1) It is expected that the growth rate of the rural consumer goods market will continue to rise, but the growth rate of the urban market will continue to slow down; (2) Online shopping channels remain Rapid growth, but the growth rate of physical channels continued to slow; (3) The overall market downturn, but new consumer demand and expectations are constantly emerging. It is expected that the differentiation trend of the individual apparel stocks' earnings will become more apparent in the future: (1) In the period of profound transformation of the industry, more blind spots and business opportunities such as Shuang Eleven, Yu He Bao and Wechat bonuses have emerged; (2) Traditional clothing retail brands Such new demands have lags and mismatches in the grasping and satisfying of different rhythms. The rhythms and strengths of companies responding to new changes will bring about more obvious differentiation, including profit differentiation.
Long-term recommendation rich Anna, Summa clothing.
The overall performance of the relatively flat sector in the industry was relatively flat. It fell slightly by 0.30% last week. It outperformed the broader market and showed some defensiveness; the number of gains and losses was among the most prevalent among the market. Culture, Pathfinder, Home of the Sea.
Judging from the valuation level, the current PE valuation of the textile and apparel segment is 14.63 times, corresponding to a 14-year predicted net profit growth of 13.37%. Relatively speaking, the valuation of the sector is at the top of all sub-sectors. The location is slightly behind.
Last week, the General Administration of Customs announced its export data for May. Exports of textiles and garments in a single month increased by 8.70% year-on-year, which is in line with our judgment on the “sustained weak recovery†of exports. The latest statistics on domestic consumer demand show that domestic consumption has not yet improved significantly. Signs.
Last week, the price of cotton continued to decline slightly. The cotton prices since 2014, the first quarter of 2014, April, and May decreased by 10.95%, 0.63%, 9.67%, and 0.45% year-on-year, respectively. Since April, the direct cotton subsidy policy has been inward. The impact of the drop in cotton prices was significant.
Risk Warning: Terminal demand continues to slump; industry operating costs continue to climb; industry competition intensifies.
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